The Science Was Sound
I’d argue that the science was sound. Three past-their-prime vets for a dynamic wing. In a vacuum, you make that move every time. It was a good move. Kudos to R.C. Buford.
But as the Richard Jefferson trade has shown, basketball is not all science. It’s science, some stuff you can’t quantify and luck. And the Richard Jefferson trade has failed on the last two accounts. No sense in pretending the world is round, when we all know it’s flat. Or some such.
Adrian Wojnarowski has written a helpful piece on the Spurs’ current disposition toward RJ, and it’s not rosy. Go read that. But I want to frame this discussion around two talking points from yesterday’s press.
John Hollinger says the Spurs are not a lock for the postseason.
In fact, the top-eight Western team most likely to miss the postseason isn’t any of the seven I mentioned above: It’s San Antonio. Say this to anyone in the league, and you’ll immediately be countered with the absolute dead certainty of the Spurs finishing in the top eight, and there’s a logic behind this: San Antonio has a superior point differential (plus-4.7 per game) and a 2½ game lead over the Rockets in the West. Combine that with the expectation of the Spurs’ patented second-half surge, and they’d seem a lock.
Unfortunately, the Spurs haven’t cashed in on their favorable early schedule. San Antonio is 29-20, but with its scoring margin it should be 34-15; that’s the league’s greatest negative disparity and could come back to bite the team in the second half of the season. The thing everyone misses about the Spurs is that they have only 12 home games left, and in addition their opponents’ strength is among the league’s most difficult over the final 33 games. As a result, the Playoff Odds give the Spurs a 71.4 percent chance of making the postseason — solid, but far from a lock.
Still, the Spurs project to finish the season with 47 wins … and the Rockets to come in ninth with 43.
I can buy that. But assume Richard Jefferson is not the Spurs’ future. And remember that Manu Ginobili may not be back next season, and even if so, he’ll be a year older. Given those realities, I’d rather see the Spurs miss the playoffs and try their hand at lottery-luck than qualify for the playoffs only to be bounced in the first round.
The lottery doesn’t guarantee the Spurs more than they have now, but it puts them in a better place to build around their core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, DeJuan Blair and George Hill. Maybe, come July, we include Tiago Splitter’s name into the mix. It’s a nice start.
But even with that core, or more precisely, because of it, you can see that San Antonio’s talent base is not sufficient to compete in the West. Add a lottery pick, and the team is still woefully short-handed. That’s talking point No. 1.
This leads us to our second talking point. Chemistry.
Gregg Popovich recently opined, “We’ve never had a group like this that didn’t gel, as far as being consistent night after night. I think if we change this person for that person, we’d still have the same problem.”
Well, yes and no, Pop. Yes and no.
There is no question that the Spurs lack chemistry, and that more new faces would only seem to exasperate the problem. But there is a prior consideration, one that is more basic to San Antonio’s concerns. Can this current group ever get to the point of championship contention? On paper, one would think so. But on the court they’re a messy ragtag of underachievement. In my estimation, all that unquantifiable stuff and need for good luck just isn’t in the mix with the team’s current personnel.
If I’m correct, then trading one set of chemistry issues for another isn’t a 1:1 exchange. Rather, it’s an opportunity to find a better mix of players. One whose sense of the game is more conducive to one another. Plus, it gives the new mix an opportunity to play together for half a season prior to next summer’s training camp. It’s an opportunity to put the pieces in place for next season’s championship run.
If that last sentence strikes you as odd, let me explain. I’m not at all convinced this season’s struggles amount to the end of an era. The Spurs still have time to get back to the top during the Duncan window. But it’s going to take a radical re-approach, and the clock is ticking. But really, the Spurs are one move away from being next year’s popular dark horse selection. Watch it happen.
R.C. Buford and his staff rarely make mistakes. And the Richard Jefferson trade wasn’t one of them. It was, as I said, the right move. The mistake in this situation is to deny the obvious: the current team doesn’t work. Call a mulligan, R.C. You’ve earned it. Take what you now know and go get this one back.
We’ll wait for you to make it right. No worries. And, if you don’t, being the winningest team of the last decade wasn’t so bad.
