Tim Duncan, League MVP?

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Maybe he’s too old, but that hardly disqualifies someone from MVP consideration. That’s just the sort of unthinking bias people carry into a season. No one expected Tim Duncan, tagged everywhere as a player in rapid decline, to compete for MVP honors this season, or, for that matter, any other season between now and his retirement. But Tim Duncan’s name ought to appear on each and every short list of 2010 MVP candidates. His production this season rivals LeBron James and outpaces Kobe Bryant, depending on how you evaluate such things.

Gregg Popovich recently said, “With everything he’s [Tim Duncan] done for us, if our record was better, you’d hear people talking about him for MVP. And that sounds sort of strange because we thought those years had passed.”

Well, maybe those years haven’t entirely disappeared.

The Spurs’ slow start has diverted attention from Tim Duncan’s MVP-level brilliance. But San Antonio is starting to get their legs underneath them. As of this morning, the Spurs are ranked third in John Hollinger’s Power Rankings, clustered together with the league’s other elite teams. By the end of the season, San Antonio’s slow start will have been lost to the tide of a long schedule, and they’ll finish with more or less the same record as the other contenders, save, perhaps, the Lakers. The slow start won’t be such an excuse then.

And that slow start tells us something about the quality of Tim Duncan’s season-that 20-12 record owes everything to Tim Duncan. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson are under-performing this year, each player registering well-beneath the lofty expectations of a crazy offseason. Parker is having his worst season in years; Ginobili is woefully inconsistent; Jefferson can’t maintain the handle on his role with his new team-some night’s he’s on, but most night’s he’s not.

Tim Duncan, on the other hand, well…more people should have noticed by now. Tim Duncan is having a career year in terms of efficiency-his 28.12 PER ranks second in the league. His per minute numbers rival or top every previous career high.

Current Career High
22.7 ppg 22.6
11.5 rpg 12.2
3.4 apg 3.8
2.1 bpg 2.8
.549 FG% .549
.761 FT% .799
28.12 PER 27.14

In short, Tim Duncan is currently the best big man in the league and is playing at the top of his game. If he doesn’t win MVP, it will be because some guy named LeBron or Kobe snatch it away. Otherwise, through two and half months of play, there isn’t anyone more deserving.

  • Tristan Wilkins

    Tim is carrying the team more it seems this year. Why? M.V.P. should go to Tim. He has such a good supporting cast more than ever. But me thinks that this will all turn around, and the spurs will be the team to contend with over all the others. They just need to get the chemistry down and their confindence back in their game,{mainly Parker, Jefferson, and somewhat Manu, but he comin out of it} They will be at the top at the end, i can almost gurantee it.

  • Tristan Wilkins

    Timmy D, M.V.P!!! He should get it. No one else playin that great on the team, but i think they will come out of it. They startin to come out the funk. GO SPURS!!!!! Tim Duncan #21 M.V.P.!!!!!

  • Mr. Anonymous

    This is what really annoys me about the rubbish basketball Manu, Parker & Jefferson (among others) are playing.

    It is wasting a phenomenal season (and maybe the last phenomenal season) from a true basketball great.

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  • lvmainman

    Coach Pop lost his mind last night bringing Duncan off the bench down 12. Duncan should’ve started, then been held out of the 2nd qtr.

    1.) Spurs were clearly out of rhythm without Duncan

    2.) Duncan was clearly out of rhythm coming off the bench

    3.) Raptors were given confidence and a stronger belief they could win

    4.) Kept Raptor crowd motivated all game

    5.) Spurs had to climb uphill all night and put added pressure on themselves at the free throw line

    If Pop would’ve employed that strategy in Washington, they’d have lost just the same.

    2nd time in Duncan’s career off the bench? Interesting you talk about an MVP candidate who’s not deserving enough to start the game in Toronto.

  • Olexiy

    Stats are quite strange: Duncan’s highest points per game was 25+ in 2003, and now he has 20, not 22.7

  • zainn
  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner
  • Ivander

    Concerning this article:
    I totally agree Duncan has a career year and should be in the MVP talk more that he is at the moment. I am amazed every game I see himplay , I already said that a few weeks ago but I’m glad to repeat it! He is hitting shots that last year he missed all the time from jump-shots over hook-shots, he has found back his touch and it’s great to see! Just imagine Parker playing like last year, Manu bringing 80% of what he brought 3 years ago and RJ somehow playing consistently…….and adding the bench that this year delivers nearly every game…I think the Spurs would be right there on top with LA! Fortunately the season has yet a long way to go.

    Concerning yesterday’s game @ Toronto: Yesterday was one of the most frustrating games I’ve ever watched the Spurs play!
    Problem #1 : When I saw Ratliff in the starting 5 for Duncan ,I thought TD might be injured,which I probably (surely) would have read somewhere. But when I saw Timmy on the bench, I thought “It’s not Timmy who’s injured, it’s Pop’s head!!” With Duncan starting, the Spurs would very probably have had a better start and the game could have gone the other way.
    Problem #2 : Freethrows!!!! Again and again it’s FT’s that have cost us a W. The Spurs’ defense was alright, their offense wasn’t at all, but FT’s were the main problem, and Duncan sitting on the bench!!

    Anyway, go Spurs, I think we’re looking way better already!

  • Jimbo

    I think Pop gets a TON of leeway based on what he’s done. If Vinny Del Negro had pulled this move (sitting Derrick Rose the entire first quarter for example), Bulls fans would have been at his throat. Now I understand that Pop deserves latitude and he sure as hell has earned it, but he doesn’t even feel like he needs to explain such decisions beyond a trite ‘first quarter doesn’t really matter’ explanation. I’m sorry, but that is not acceptable to me.

  • Ash

    Please, typical Spurs fanboys on here.

    Tim Duncan does not play enough minutes to be league MVP, nor is his team good enough.

    Let me know when his team is 1st or second in the conference, and Tim is playing more minutes, then we can put him in the conversation.

  • junierizzle

    To lvmainman, I think you just listed the reasons why TD is the MVP. We saw how the Spurs look with TD coming off the bench.

    That was a winnable game. But for whatever reason POP didn’t start him. It through everyones rythm off and worst it let the Raptors get into a rhythm. Sure TD came back in and they came close but it was too late. The Spurs hole was too big. They lost it the 2nd quarter when they went up by 12. That’s when TD came in but……too late.

    I think POP was going to see if he can get away with not playing TD. He figured if the Spurs could get off to a good start then, maybe he wouldn’t have to play TD and rest him the whole game.
    At least now POP knows what can happen. Stop gambling POP. Things were going great until he pulled this move.

  • Beat Counselor

    Hmmmmm…what is Pop thinking having Tim come off the bench?

    Maybe he’s thinking that if the great Tim Duncan is willing to come off the bench, then maybe Tony Parker would be willing to too? TP does fit the prototype of the ‘one man scoring machine’ 6th man mold quite well doesn’t he (ala Jamal Crawford, Will Bynum, Nate Robinson, and what AI is should be these days)?

    It sure would open things up for the starting line-up if we had a pass first PG in the game (Hill?). It would force RJ to become more involved in the offense. It might then be prudent to start Manu (closely monitored minutes of course) so that he can get his touches and share ball handling duties at the point.

    TimVP! TimVP!

  • moo

    went to the game yesterday.
    observations:
    1) parker was shredding the raptors in the first quarter. i’m not sure what happened after that, either he was on the bench or he was told to distribute rather than score, but he was doing phenomenal early in the game.
    2) timmy posted on the right block about 60~70% of the time. that’s not his strong side. why why why. and of course, those all clanked. on the left block he hit about 50%.
    3) manu wasn’t very effective in slashing.
    4) jefferson wasn’t particularly impressive. i haven’t watched him in a spurs jersey this year, but he seems content to hang around the outside.
    5) rmjr wasn’t his normal trigger-happy self. actually, there was a rmjr-manu-jefferson-parker-duncan line-up in the 3rd and 4th but there was so little offense being generated
    6) great defensive pressure on the inbounds with 3 seconds to go in the game, forced raps to burn 2 time-outs.
    7) in general the pace of the game just seemed really, really slow in comparison to games in past years that i’ve watched. i’ll blame it on the frickin cold weather (-21C yesterday), along with late games from both teams the night before.

  • ThatBigGuy

    What’s sad is that Timmy is one of the Top-10 players of all time and in 20 years, only Spurs fans will remember him. He didn’t rape anyone, pull a gun on anyone, get a DUI, choke his coach, or ramble on about prac-tiss. He just performed at an MVP level for 12 years and counting, won 4 rings (and counting, fingers crossed), and made south Texans very happy.

    As far as Timmy not starting, it puzzles me. Usually I can come up with a hypothesis for nearly anything, but this one leaves me hanging. Pop, ‘splain yourself!

  • http://mysa.com josh

    Last nights loss was winnable.tough loss but sure did enjoy seeing the spurs keep fighting.if spurs would had hit most of those free throws, than the boys would have been 21-12

  • David G

    Offensively Duncan looks as good as ever, defensively I think he’s slipped just a little. I know during the SG’s Podcast he talked with Bucher and Stein about how far Ducan’s slipped…Simmion’s main reason why is because teams don’t double him anymore.

    Just watching and going on memory it appears that Duncan is doubled less than the past, but I think its more to the fact that he now has 3 to 4 quality shooters around him as opposed to back in the day when the Spurs were much more defensive minded. I’m thinking of lineups of Nazr and a still set shooting Parker as a reason why teams were willing to double Duncan every time he got the ball on the left block.

    What do my fellow Spurs Fanatics think? Is Duncan doubled less frequently than before? Is there website that actually keeps track of double teams in the post?

  • RI

    A lot of credit to TD the best power forward to have graced the hardwood. However, unless they get more from the rest of the posse and get an athletic big like mahinmi or williams to contribute they will not bea ble to match up with the only ones that matter, the lakers. The number 3 ranking rings hollow given the caliber of the opposition the Spurs have faced.

  • DaniS

    David G,

    Pounding the Rock has a nice bit about just the thing you’re talking about in regard to the podcast (both in general about our Spurs and the double-teaming of Tim). Check it out if ya can.

    And my sentiments exactly for TimVP:) (nice touch Beat Counselor!)

    http://www.poundingtherock.com/2010/1/4/1233048/the-1-2-1-zone-fun-with-the-bs#storyjump

  • SpursfanSteve

    I read that artile on PTR. I thought it was pretty good. Timmy also hasnt been posting up as much. You cant outright double team someone who is facing the basket unless they are in a corner, which Tim never is.

  • SpursfanSteve

    and by artile, i mean article.

  • derek

    @Timothy Varner:

    I don’t think that it’s a good idea to use per 36 stats in an MVP argument as the chief motivator. Although Duncan is playing very efficiently this year, he is possibly making a smaller positive impact on the game this year than in other years due to reduced minutes. (Plus, it is not like the Spurs are deep, so his reduced minutes are a large problem for the team.)

    I didn’t realize the Spurs’ apparent recent ascendance, so you might be right that LBJ and KB are the only other real contenders, but his third place, while solid, seems very distant.

  • jason

    I know single games and emotional streaks my feel important to fans, but regular season wins mean nothing to pop, he’d rather take a gamble or have an experimental game against a relatively high powered offense that we won’t see again until next year. Its not a terrible idea to see how this team reacts to no duncan, If they can learn to defend, move the ball, and create offense without him we will be a much better team both with timmy on and off the court.

    As for min played, averageing 32 is plenty for MVP consideration, and If having a poor quality team around a player disqualifies someone then iverson should never have won one.

  • Tristan Wilkins

    You guys keeping talking about him not starting, yeah kinda throws them out of sync,and he was supposed to be playin less minutes this yr, but not as much as pop would like i’m sure, but the guy is gettin up there in age and all the wear and tear on those knees, but he still doin what he does best, puttin this team on his shoulders and sayin “i’m gonna do this”, and carries the team. Lookin damn good to me for a guy “supposed to be goin out in a few yrs.” Go on Timmy do what you do!

  • Ivander

    I don’t think that Duncan isn’t playing enough minutes to be an MVP favorite. This guy puts up MVP-like numbers in less minutes than others do, so I think it’s even an argument to vote FOR him. He does more with less! He averages about 32 min/games this year and still delivers like in his first years.

    I know Pop doesn’t care about winning one or two games more or less during the regular season but if they had won against Toronto the gap between SA and the Mavs would have been reduced to 1 game, and I think trying to take the lead in the SW division is not the worst position to be in?
    Plus, both teams play on friday so the Spurs could have taken the lead by winning against them. It would have been great for their moral…and bad for Marc Cuban’s, which is always nice to watch.

  • Paul

    @lvmainman/others questioning Pop’s decision.

    We saw this last year. Pop, one of the best in the game as far as getting his guys in top condition come playoffs, was likely resting Duncan and his knees a bit in the second of a b2b.
    Reasons this is reasonable:
    1. We want Duncan to be at his peak in the playoffs.
    2. The regular season record is not nearly as important as people assume. If we take care of the basketball issues, the record will come as it has for the past decade.
    3. If TD ends up missing some time in the second half as he has in the past few years, we will already have a flavor of life sans 20-12 super star.
    4. A huge part of this season is about working in the new pieces and finding chemistry, so it is not a bad thing to add variables and shake things up so that this level of awkwardness does not happen if a starter cannot make it to a playoff game.

  • Drom John

    Tim’s minutes in Toronto was normal. Starting isn’t as important as minutes. First quarter is no more important than any other quarter. Fourth is the most important because you know the point spread.

    OTOH, it’s a road back to back. I’d have been happier with Tim getting less minutes to rest his knees or even not dressing while Ian dressed and played.

    As for Pop, I don’t like the DNP for the two Hairston and Haislip in Washington and Toronto. A few minutes here and there will keep the team fresher.

    As to MVP, yes Tim is in the conversation. Even though Tim is my favorite all-time player, Tim is only 7th on my current ballot, behind James, Bryant, Bosh, Wade, Durant, and Anthony. Why not 2nd behind James? Minutes played. Would I want Duncan to get more minutes? No! The championship is much more important than the MVP.

  • Jesse Blanchard

    I’ll just add this to the discussion and read what some of you guys respond with before throwing my own MVP arguments into the mix:

    Of all the MVP candidates that have been thrown out here, who among them would you trade Tim Duncan for? If you can, throw out all emotional attachments. And do not just think of this as a talent for talent or bring in longevity…as each player is performing right now-who amongst Bryant, Wade, James, Paul, Bosh, Howard, etc. would actually make this Spurs roster a better team in a straight up swap?

    The answer might not be enough to swing your vote for MVP but I think it at least puts him in the discussion.

  • Jesse Blanchard

    And I just wanted to lay this out there for those who would want to trade Parker: there are only two players on the Spurs team that can create shots off their own dribble: Manu and TP.

    Given his recent history do you really want to leave it up to chance having Manu as the only playmaker on your team?

  • NL

    TD’s numbers certainly warrant MVP talk and if he keeps them up and I think that’s a big “if” since he’s so unselfish and willing to defer to three All-Star caliber players as well as the rest of his teammates.

    His free throw percentage is up to respectable levels (it was close to 80 percent before the last few games). I feel like he’s shooting more this year. When he won his MVPs, he took 1,500 and 1,400 shots, respectively. http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tim_duncan/career_stats.html He was at 1,100 last year albeit in 7 fewer games.

    I actually think 48MOH and the media at large has an integral role to play, too. Starting the buzz about this and putting it on the radar of sportswriters and broadcasters, who ultimately decide the MVP, is critical. I think that was a large reason Steve Nash won it the second time - not to take away from his incredible season.

    That being said, with that stats Kobe, LBJ and Melo put up, it’s certainly a long shot. I loved Duncan’s quote in Mike Monroe’s column today: ““I didn’t know I left this level,” he said. “Did I?”

  • lvmainman

    I just want to disagree with all the posters who agree with the craziness of Pop’s decision. This was the 2nd time in Duncan’s career that he didn’t start a game he played in.

    2nd time!! Think on that, over 1000 games, 2nd time.

    Read McDyess’ quote “I wasn’t ready. It caught me off guard.” Obviously, the Spurs didn’t go into the road trip (6th game in 9 days) with the bench Duncan plan. Why would McDyess say that if that’s the case?

    Should Spurs limit Duncan’s minutes sure. But wait until 2nd qtr? Pop doesn’t do that with Ginobili, does he? No, he plays him half a qtr. Why can’t that approach be done with Duncan? Why on earth can’t Haislip play some 4, instead of Jefferson? Anthony Tolliver saw plenty of playing time last year until it was proven he couldn’t shoot.

    The announcers said the Spurs are 4-10 when trailing going into the 4th qtr. So this notion that the 1st qtr doesn’t matter is pure nonsense.

    The Spurs were in a good rhythm having won 5 in a row and Pop just discarded the game as a throwaway on the same day the Mavs and Nuggets lost.

    It was a dumb decision.

  • Ivander

    @Paul:

    You are right but don’t you agree that the regular season is becoming more and more important in the West because a lot of teams have so much potential. Reaching the 50+ wins is getting tougher every year and I think if the Spurs don’t have homecourt advantage during the first and second round in the playoffs it’s going to be really hard.

    The average team in the West is just so much better in comparison to the East. I know there’s no need to cry about it because it won’t change a thing. It’s just kind of “unfair” to see Boston or the Cavs and the pathetic divisions they are playing while the SW division will very probably not have a team that hasn’t won 40-50% of its games by the end of the season. The NW division is tougher then ever too. If this continues a few seasons the NBA should just abolish the divisional system or something…yup I’m out of my mind and I will stop this crazy talk right now. I guess it’s just my incertitude about the Spurs’ season/future talking.

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  • David G

    @DaniS

    thanks for the link. My eyes (and I watch every Spurs game) tell me exactly what the article says. I was wondering if there was a site that actually had the numbers…something like “percentage of time player X is double teamed on the (left or right) block with his back to the basket” I’m sure a team like the Rockets keep track of that.

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  • YC

    It is great to have Spurs site talking about TD these days, given how much impact he provides to the team. If pro-spurs site do not recognize his brilliance, how can we expect others to recognize it?

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