Tony Parker’s Struggles are No Mystery, but Can They be Fixed?

by Matthew Tynan

It really hasn’t been the season most expected to see in San Antonio, and a whole hell of a lot of that is due to the struggles of Tony Parker, which have been clearly documented in recent weeks by friends of the program Aaron McGuire (here at Gothic Ginobili) and Dan McCarney (here at the San Antonio Express-News). The numbers outline the “what” in the situation — there is an obvious problem at hand here — but the “why” is also relevant, as is the “How the f#@^ is he going to get his s@$% together???”

There are two sets of data separated by a distinct event that occurred this season — a hamstring injury Parker suffered against the Memphis Grizzlies on Dec. 5. In one 18-game sample, we see the Parker of old; in the following 17-game sample, we see a version of the Spurs’ point guard that is very unfamiliar to us. One who can’t beat defenders off the dribble and separate around the rim; one who relies more on others to help him score than he ever has before; one whose efficiency has plummeted to something that resembles a well-below-average scoring point guard.

But for the first half of his season — he’s played 35 of the team’s 49 games — he wasn’t this shell of himself we’ve seen in recent months. In those first 18 games, he was the Parker from last season. Perhaps even a little better. He was accounting for a nearly identical percentage of his team’s points and assists, and he was scoring at a better clip pre-injury than he did throughout all of last season.

What’s more: The areas of his game that require the most explosiveness — finishing inside and creating scoring chances on his own — seemed to be flourishing. He was converting around 65 percent of his shots from inside the restricted area (up from the 59 percent he shot in the same area the previous season), and 70 percent of his baskets were unassisted (up from 64 percent the previous season), per NBA.com.

Tony Parker was Tony Parker, and then suddenly he wasn’t.

But it doesn’t just happen like that. It’s easy to point to that date, Dec. 5, when Parker injured his hamstring, because there’s been a steep decline ever since. Over the next 17 games, Parker’s numbers have fallen off a cliff across the board. Not only has his scoring efficiency dipped badly, but so has his ability to create for others. He’s shooting 42.9 percent from the floor over the last two months, including an atrocious 46 percent from inside the restricted area, and he’s assisting on roughly 28 percent of his team’s baskets when he’s on the floor, which is down from about 35 percent prior to that Grizzlies’ game.

And just to add on to the damning statistics, only 58 percent of his baskets have been unassisted over that stretch — remember, the pre-injury number was 70 percent — which means he’s been less able to create for himself. He can’t get to the basket the way he had been previously, and once he gets there he’s struggling mightily to finish.

In McGuire’s piece, he mentions the fact the Parker is actually moving around more this season, which perhaps runs counter to the argument that his legs have been affected by this hamstring injury (not Aaron’s words, just something I’d guess folks would deduce from that info). I’d argue otherwise. Parker is running 3.7 miles per 48 minutes this season, per SportVU data, which is up from 3.6 miles per 48 minutes last season. I don’t believe this is a good thing.

Look at it like this: Rather than Parker making one move (whether it be in isolation or out of a pick-and-roll) and beating his opponent to the basket, he’s being cut off quite frequently. Because of this, he’s having to stop, back out, and readjust, making his path to the basket, or merely to the paint, more circuitous than direct. Straight lines cover shorter distances than squiggly ones. Basically, Parker is having to cover more ground in order to score, and without that direct threat at the basket, San Antonio’s drive-and-kick game has suffered.

But there is a glimmer of positivity, and it’s actually kind of bright and shiny, relatively speaking. Parker is actually shooting the ball very well. His 52 percent from the 3-point line is gaudy and obvious, but his numbers in the mid-range area have leveled off at a very respectable 42 percent over that 17-game stretch (up from 35 percent through the first 18 games). This is crucial, as it allows Parker to maintain at least some effectiveness. Despite his struggles with the hamstring, teams are still highly unlikely to crowd him on the perimeter or chase him over the top of screens. He’s going to get that shot, and if he’s hitting it he can still be an offensive threat.

Still, the larger problem here is frequency. Prior to the injury, only 22 percent of Parker’s points came from the mid-range area; that number has skyrocketed to 38 percent since. Through those first 18 games, 61 percent of his points came from the paint and the free-throw line combined; that number has dropped to 48 percent over the last 17 games, per NBA.com.

While it’s a good thing that Parker is shooting so well from mid-range, the volume is a problem. The Spurs are at their best when his threat to penetrate and either score or kick far outweighs the threat of a long 2-pointer. In fact, teams are basically just saying, “Go ahead.”

So what happens next? The fact of the matter is, hamstring injuries can brutally linger for weeks and months. Only a couple of weeks ago after the Spurs’ convincing win over the Trail Blazers, Parker, away from the roving media scrum, mentioned that while he’s feeling better, he still just can’t hit that final gear to separate from his man. He’s only 32, but it’s an old 32, and the mild worry has blossomed into a concern that he just can’t recover from injuries like this the way he used to.

I’m not ready to go there yet, however. The fact of the matter is, Parker has been slightly declining for two years, and inevitably, the longer his career lasts the more time it will take to bounce back from a strained hammy. And that’s normal. We probably saw his peak during the 2012-13 season. Yet I can’t help but think that much of the worry is overblown at this point. We’ve already seen this season what a healthy Parker can still do, and while there is no guarantee he gets back to that place physically, there is too much time left in the season for me to believe he can’t get close.

Beyond that, there’s been a lot of chatter about this injury as it pertains to San Antonio extending Parker and paying him a bunch of money over the next three years. While the complaints about his durability may be founded in reality, I would avoid extrapolating his current situation into a long-term problem. Even if this thing lingers the rest of the season, you can’t resign yourself to the idea that it will be forever.

When Parker’s legs are right, he’s still an ultra-efficient offensive threat (18.8 points, 6.2 assists, 51.1-percent shooting per 36 minutes prior to his injury) with a 3-point shot that just continues to improve. Will his hamstring return to normal by the time the postseason rolls around? Who the hell knows? But remember this: The Spurs no longer need Parker to score 20 points a night. His most valuable assets are his knowledge of the system, late-game execution, and his ability to take care of the ball and involve others. San Antonio needs his health to improve — this slowed-down version, in all likelihood, will not be enough to navigate the Western Conference Playoffs — but it doesn’t need Super Tony from a couple of years ago.

Only time will tell whether the Spurs’ point guard can regain form, but it’s not as if there’s no causation to point to for all this. The hamstring injury has wreaked havoc on Parker’s greatest asset — his speed — and he hasn’t been the same since the night it happened.

The reason for his struggles isn’t really difficult to identify. But the solution to the problem? Outside of time and rest, that part that remains a mystery.