Toros Watch: Slumping and Scheming

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DeMarcus Nelson

DeMarcus Nelson

The Toros have the most talented roster in the D-League. This was confirmed again last week when Toros center Dwayne Jones was named Player of the Week.  His week-long averages of 28 points and 19 rebounds made him the 3rd Toro this season to receive Player of the Week honors. But talent and strong individual play have not helped as much as one would suspect. The Toros have lost 5 of 6. They’re still in the playoff chase, and comfortably, but they’ve fallen to second in the Southwest Division during this stretch of uncharacteristically bad play.

One reason for this may be roster turnover. The Toros best two players this season–Hairston and Mensah-Bonsu–are full-timing it in the Association. The Spurs have apparently made the decision to keep Hairston on their bench for the remainder of the season. (Mensah-Bonsu, by the way, is averaging just under 8 points and 8 boards in nearly 19 minutes per game for the Raptors.)  And the Toros may still add Ian Mahinmi to their squad for the final two weeks and postseason, provided he’s healthy enough to play.

We mentioned in a recent post that the Toros added DerMarr Johnson to their roster. This is a quality signing, especially so late in the season. But they didn’t rest there. Just prior to last Tuesday’s tip against Fort Wayne, the Toros added former Golden State Warrior and Duke Blue Devil DeMarcus Nelson to the roster. Nelson was an opening day starter for Golden State this season, after a strong training camp and, of course, the Monta Ellis injury. Since joining the Toros, Nelson’s play has been mediocre, but the combo guard is getting plenty of minutes as a starter. It will be difficult to evaluate his play until after he’s learned the system.  There is no question he has the talent to be a good player. But will he fit the system?

Why sign Nelson so late in the season? This signing was primarily a confirmation that Hairston’s time in Austin is spent.  The loss of Hairston dramatically weakened the Toros backcourt; Dell Demps saw DeMarcus Nelson as a corrective. He’s a good choice. I was excited to read of his inclusion. And I wonder if Nelson’s signing is not part of a loftier design.

Jacque Vaughn’s contract expires at the end of the season. The Spurs will need to locate a 3rd string point prior to the start of next season. I’m guessing they will preserve their MLE for Gooden or the best player available, such as Rasheed Wallace. Re-signing Vaughn to a 1 year deal is the most likely scenario. But if Nelson plays well for the Toros and fits the program, the Spurs could offer him a training camp invitation with a genuine shot to make the big league roster. He’ll have the advantage of some exposure to the system and a vacant roster spot.

With Parker, Hill, and Mason Jr. already on board, the Spurs can afford to take a risk on a raw, soon to be Austin-assigned point. In other words, if they signed Nelson, it would be to groom him. Ultimately, he needs to show that he is capable of playing point guard. If I were his agent, I would tell him to play his game but put the lionsshare of his focus and energy toward knowing the system, playing cagey man defense, accumulating low turnovers and possessing smart shot selection. In other words, to do those things that don’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet, but which the Spurs love.

Nelson is 6’4” with a gigantic wing span. If he put his mind to it, he could be defensive pest in the NBA. He has the body to drape opposing point guards like a thick, woolly blanket. And, conversely, he doesn’t have the body to guard NBA shooting guards. Offensively, Nelson is a combo-guard. Defensively, he might stick if he can learn to bother opposing  point guards. Defense is his ticket to a multi-year NBA contract. I know, this goes against his collegiate strengths. But it wasn’t too long ago when George Hill was a premier scorer at IUPUI.  Players adapt.

George Hill and Malik Hairston are both limited offensive players, at least at this stage of their career. They’re both part of the Spurs long-term plans because of their defense. Popovich will reward smart, defensive-minded players with contracts. Hill is in the current rotation because he is a reliable defender. There is a lesson in this for young players hoping to land in San Antonio.

  • VI_Massive

    Tim,

    Do you see Pops and/or Dwayne Jones getting a camp invite to see if they can play their way to a bench role with the Spurs?

    I guess with Mahinmi hopefully healthy next year, he may fill the “athletic young guy” spot on our big man roster, but don’t those other two guys deserve a look? Especially Jones, since guys that big with game don’t grow on trees.

    What do you think about our big man rotation going into camp next season?

  • VI_Massive

    Also, I would hope we spend our MLE on a SF (depending on how Gist looks after a year of maturation). I really don’t like the idea of paying for an older guy like Rasheed and I’m convinced we won’t want to sign Gooden longer term because of his defensive weakness. Plus I think he’ll want more money than we should pay him.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    VI_Massive,

    Good questions.

    First, the guys under contract are Duncan, Bonner, Thomas, Oberto and Mahinmi. If Gooden plays well, they will offer him the MLE, I’d guess. I’d prefer a small forward too, and I’ve written elsewhere that the Spurs might satisfy both needs through a trade of, say, Oberto and Bowen for someone like Josh Childress. It’s not likely, but there are possibilities out there. But let’s assume that doesn’t happen. With Gooden, the Spurs will have 6 bigs. More than enough. Mahinmi will not be D-League eligible next season, which means that Pop will have to play him with the Spurs–this is not really a stretch, that was in Pop’s plan for this season prior to Ian’s injury. And I think James Gist is a near certain training camp invite. So, the number is actually 7.

    Mensah-Bonsu seems to have found a home with the Raptors. So much for his detractors, eh? Based on his play with the Toros, Spurs and Raptors this season, he’s a definite NBA player. The Spurs may have let a good thing go for a better thing, but I still wish they had violated their own code and waived Vaughn instead. What’s done is done. It doesn’t really matter. There really isn’t a place for him on the roster, anyway.

    Dwayne Jones is outperforming his D-League contract. He’ll end up on an NBA bench or in Europe next season. He’s worth more than the 30k+ he is making in Austin. Eventually, he’ll have to go with the money over the dream. The Spurs could offer him a training camp invitation, but if you were his agent would you accept? The math doesn’t work. Better to go where there is roster spot available.

    Finding a way to make room for Gist–who has had a solid Italian campaign–could be helpful. If Gist plays well in training camp, I expect the Spurs to keep him around for further grooming in Austin. How well he plays will determine if this is done by way of assignment or allocation. In theory, the Spurs could allocate Gist until all the must pay money has gone Oberto’s way (his contract is a partial guarantee of 1.9). That means they could waive Oberto in January 2010 and replace him with Gist on a call up. The thing about Gist is that he offers a skill set that makes long term sense for the Spurs, and for which they do not currently have. That’s important. The flirt of a 3 point shot will endear him to Popovich. Gist, fwiw, is not a 3. He’s a 4, with modest 4-3 capabilities.

    Hope that helps.

  • Will

    Thanks Tim, that was educative. I have the feeling that Pops got the Scola treatment, i.e. good player who doesn’t fit in with the team culture. I’m happy he found a new home because he’s talented enough to have a nice NBA career.

    I don’t agree with VI_massive about Gooden. I think his “defensive weakness” has more to do with learning a new system than anything, and obviously the Spurs defensive system is a bit more complicated and demanding than, say, the Suns’ :) I’m also not sure he will ask for heaps of money after all the comments he made about wanting to find a home at last. If he was signed in the first place it’s because the Spurs front office must have been convinced he was the kind of player with the right qualities to buy into the team culture. So I’d say short of another injury it’s likely he will sign with the Spurs for the sake of putting his bags down and playing for a winning team. Not all NBA players are mercenaries, even journeymen.

  • VI_Massive

    I hope he gets it defensively and succeeds and is willing to take less money/fewer years to stay in SA. I don’t think its likely, but I would be thrilled if it happened.

  • VI_Massive

    Tim,

    Can you expound on why Gist is more of a 4 than a 3? Draft Express has him listed at 6’8″ and 223 which seems undersized for a 4.

    Also, how much do you know about his performance in Italy this season? What aspects of his game did he need to work on and have they gotten better? Anything you know would be greatly appreciated.

  • Francis

    As for DeMarcus Nelson, he was an amazing scorer in high school (I think he still holds the CA career scoring record) but when he got to Duke, he adjusted to as part of a system (early in his career with JJ Redick). Late in his career at Duke, with those less accomplished Duke teams, he became more of a scorer again, leading the team, but he wasn’t an explosive scorer at any point at Duke.

    Watching him play for Golden State early this season, I didn’t understand why he was out there, it seemed like Don Nelson was just giving him cheater minutes before bringing in CJ Watson. He didn’t seem to do anything in his minutes. Which is why he’s gone from the Warriors roster.

    I like the idea that Nelson could become a bull-dog of a defensive combo guard; I actually think he can play against 2′s defensively, due to his enormous wingspan and toughness. Hey, if Pop can put George Hill on Kobe in stretches, Nelson is certainly big enough. What I’m really worried about is his offense. His shooting is erratic, and his ballhandling has never been fluid. He’s a rugged slasher, but he doesn’t have a strong left-hand, so he’s predictable going to the rim.

    Still, for all his weaknesses, he could still develop, and I’m always in favor of having a young guy who can develop rather than a washed up, former 3rd string backup to John Stockton. In fact, if he coud become comfortable in the system, he’s leaps and bounds better than our former Jayhawk.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    VI,

    The answer is in your question. Gist is an undersized 4. After they drafted him, Buford referred to him as an energy 4 in the Carl Landry mode. He doesn’t really have the handles to play on the wing. At least, not as of last summer league. I’m actually digging around about Gist right now. If I turn anything up, I’ll be sure to post about it.

    In terms of his play in Italy, I’ve simply followed the box scores. From that sample, it looks like he has performed well. High percentages, including 3s, shot blocking, lots of minutes. The program he is with–Angelico Biella—is known for its player development. They had a big hand in developing Thabo Sefolosha. They also have a small forward I’d like the Spurs to look at in this draft: Jonas Jerebko. The reason I bring him up is that the people who know about these things think he’s improved greatly this season. Biella, again, has a strong reputation in this way.

    Don’t read too much into that last statement, by the way. I’m going off of second hand reports, but Jerebko is the type of player I’d like to see the Spurs target. But there are others–Omri Casspi, for example–in the Jerebko mode. Some of whom I’ve never heard of, I’m sure. But I digress.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    The Gooden experiment is going along nicely, so far as I’m concerned. We won’t really know if it works on the court until mid to late April.

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