Two Idiots and a Conversation About the Spurs

by Matthew Tynan

A small sense of panic seems to have set in around Spurs-land, so I brought in the San Antonio Express-News’ intrepid beat writer Jeff McDonald to have a conversation about the state of things. To be clear, we’re just a couple of idiots, so take all of this how you will.

Matthew Tynan: It feels like the championship took a huge edge off for Spurs fans, as you would expect being the somewhat normal person that you are. Last year, things were tense from the start of the season — like they wanted that ring on opening night. But with the current standings the way they are, I think some fans have gone from sitting on the couch, to breaking into a light jog toward the edge of the cliff. You like to stir shit up on Twitter, so what vibe do you get from your online friends?

Jeff McDonald: Let me begin by defending these specious attacks against my Twitter persona. I am a delight. I don’t mean to come off like a caustic, sarcastic jerk — but that’s what I am, so that’s how things come out.

Anyway…

Not to paint with too broad a brush, but I feel like Spurs fans have aligned into two distinct camps. There are the Chicken Littles, running around screaming about the falling sky, same as they do every year. They were the ones declaring the 2013-14 season dead when the Spurs lost to Houston on Christmas Day to fall to 22-7, because they didn’t have a “signature win” at that point.

Then there’s the “Hey, man, it’s only December and everything’s groooooovy” camp. These folks believe nothing matters before February, that these games barely even count, that the Spurs will magically put together a 12-game winning streak on the Rodeo Trip (even though it’s only nine games long), and they’re guaranteed a spot at the top of the Western Conference standings come April. These people also probably spend their downtime huffing nitrous oxide and watching the video for R.E.M.’s “Shiny Happy People” on repeat.

The truth of the Spurs’ season to date, to me, lies somewhere in the middle. There are good reasons the Spurs have struggled through December, clinging to seventh in the West — bad health, a brutally compact schedule filled with Western Conference playoff teams, bad luck. All of those things stand a chance of improving once the calendar flips to 2015 tomorrow. Sure, there’s a chance — maybe even a good chance — that come February the Spurs are whole and playing basketball in a manner reminiscent of last season’s playoff run.

But I wonder what the Western Conference standings will look like at that point, and if there will be enough time to make up ground regardless of how well the Spurs are playing then?

MT: This is typically where I’d take a stand against this R.E.M.-fan bashing from someone who likes Pearl Jam, but unless it’s Blink 182 you’re libeling here I’ll go ahead and let it slide.

I’m with you. There is a middle ground. Yes, the schedule has been brutal, and injuries to top players have hurt the situation even more, but the Spurs have also dropped a few games they probably shouldn’t have. Then again, you can come back from the other side and say, ‘Hey, maybe if they had Tony Parker controlling the offense and Kawhi Leonard making stops on the defensive end, those games would’ve ended differently.”

But the fact of the matter is, they’ve built up enough equity over the years to deserve some benefit of the doubt. We have to wait until they’re healthy, and this is a team that can do things from anywhere in the standings if they are healthy. But like you said, the West is brutal, and they continue to lose ground without any public, specific timetable for the return of Parker or Leonard. My thing is, we’ve seen this team reel off 19 straight wins before, and with 49 games remaining, there’s still time to make a move. But it’s going to be damn difficult to do so if the Western Conference opponents ahead of them in the standings continue to play like this. But can they? Nobody goes through a full season without some sort of rut, and none of these teams are the ’96 Bulls.

This is all to say, it just feels like there’s too much noise around the Spurs (schedule, injuries, etc…) to form a definitive opinion right now. Nobody likes a “Well, maybe this happens, or maybe that happens” type of answer, but what else can you expect under the circumstances?

JM: Hey, I love R.E.M., but if you’re looking for a Michael Stipe lyric to define the Spurs right now I’d go with “Everybody Hurts.” (I’d stop short of “It’s the End of the World As We Know It” … for now).

I agree that you can’t clearly judge the Spurs minus the bodies they’ve been missing. No player is as important to the Spurs’ chances of winning on a given night that Kawhi Leonard. You can probably stat-geek the numbers better than I can, but I know this: The Spurs are under .500 the last two seasons in games Leonard does not play. You can’t say that about any other player. Tony Parker — the team’s point guard and only “reigning” All-Star — is also kind of important. Take two of the best three players off any team for a prolonged period, and it’s going to adversely affect the bottom line. Just ask Oklahoma City, which lost Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to start the season and (somewhat predictably) opened 3-12.

The Spurs’ margin for error is just going to be so slim going forward. Last season, it took 54 wins to get fourth place in the West (and that was actually a tie for fourth and fifth). If the Spurs are aiming to at least get to that spot — and they should be — they are going to have to finish 35-14, beginning tonight. And, by the way, they don’t even have the aforementioned former Finals MVPs back yet. They’re still shorthanded for the immediate future.

I think the next underrated problem for the Spurs is what happens after Leonard and Parker come back in, let’s say, January. There’s a real danger that by that point, you’ve completely exhausted Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili in what has turned out to be a vain attempt to salvage December. I have a feeling the Spurs will be feeling the effects of this long December for a while.

MT: This actually brings us to the next point: How long can Pop’s ‘maintenance program’ last with the Spurs so close to the bottom of the playoff picture? When the depth is there, and when your team’s two youngest stars are in line, you can afford to play that game the way he did last season. But now? It’s got to feel a little tight.

I actually think one of the reasons we saw Manu and Tim pulled a bit early last night was because Pop was thinking about tonight. The Pelicans — a team the Spurs can’t seem to beat, by the way — are currently one game back in the loss column, and a win would give them the season series against San Antonio. (I know we’ve been talking about it, but it’s crazy to look at the standings right now. The Spurs are two losses away and a couple of Suns and Pelicans wins away from being outside of the playoff bubble. And oh yeah, Kevin Durant is back tonight. Holy hell. I digress, though.)

Maybe it’d be contradictory to say, on one hand, “Spurs fans need to stay patient,” and then, on the other, “Maaaaaybe Duncan and Ginobili need to play tonight, even if it’s the second night of a back-to-back,” but I think they do. With depth being an issue, and with a couple of guys struggling, this feels like an important game, especially with two days off on the other side of this thing. I dunno. I know it’s a long season, but these guys aren’t the robots or machines we often joke that they are. Confidence is also a factor here.

And speaking of the damn Pellies, what is it about them when they play the Spurs? You see them up close more often than I do. Why does a team that’s near the bottom of the league in terms of defensive efficiency seem to suffocate San Antonio every time they play?

JM: I think it’s highly possible we see Duncan, for sure, and possibly Ginobili tonight. Neither logged heavy minutes last night, and there are two nights off after this one, and a lot of space for rest elsewhere in January. How effective either will be on the second night remains to be seen. But wins — almost no matter the cost — are becoming more and more important for as long as the Spurs remain on the playoff bubble.

As far the specific matchup with New Orleans goes … the Spurs have basically owned it until this season. I don’t have the particulars of every game, but before this season they were 7-1 against the Pelicans since Anthony Davis arrived, 11-1 since Monty Williams became coach.

As for this season …

Aside from some of the obvious factors — ie, the Spurs are just going to have trouble with young, and athletic teams, plus Anthony Davis might be the best player in the league right now — I’m not sure that the Spurs’ struggles against New Orleans are different than their struggles against other teams. As we’ve both noted, the Spurs are beat up and run ragged, and that makes it tough to beat any team that isn’t just absolutely dreadful.

MT: Yeah, prior to this season, the record’s been good against New Orleans, but how many of those were come-from-behind? I’m not going to go look, but it ALWAYS feels like the Spurs pulled something out of their ass in the Davis era…then the Pellies just started actually closing this year. Heh, ‘the Davis Era.’ Have we really gotten to that point already? The dude is amazing.

If I had to bet, I’d put money on those two playing. I think we’ve both built a decent feel for how Pop treats these back-to-backs over the years. Or maybe we haven’t. Come to think of it, I’m wrong all the freaking time, so what the hell am I talking about?

Wait, what do you think the chances are that someone asks Pop tonight, “Is this game a must-win?” or “How important is this game?” Ah man, I miss Pop. And those scrums. I’ll be back around soon.

I’m jumping all over the place. Anyway, New Orleans is coming off a win over the Suns, the other team directly in front of them in the standings, and can make it a nice little two-step if they can topple San Antonio. But this kind of feels like one of those “Eff this” games, where the Spurs (who were visibly pissed off last night) have a big response. I know it’s a back-to-back, but it feels like that to me.

I know you weren’t in Memphis last night, but do you get that feeling at all? We’ve seen this before.

JM: Yeah, I feel like the Spurs could be in “eff this” mode tonight … but it could also be one of those “spirit is willing, body is weak” things. I don’t know if they have the gas left this month to withstand a good game from a good team. They might need New Orleans to help them out a bit.

That said … despite everything working against them, the Spurs have been competitive in basically every game during this gauntlet. It’s a shot or two here they can’t make, a stop or two there they can’t get, that dooms them down the stretch. I’d expect them to at least be in this game in the fourth quarter, and then who knows?

The last time the Spurs were in the AT&T Center, they defeated a Houston team they hadn’t beaten in two full years. So we know they’re capable, if the chips fall right.

No matter the outcome, I feel like the best thing that can happen for the Spurs tonight is the clock will strike midnight, the December from hell will be over, and they can flip the calendar to 2015.

MT: Agreed. This has been ugly. Good riddance.

It’s kind of crazy: After tonight, the Spurs will have played their first 34 games over the course of 64 days; beginning on Jan. 1, they’ll play their remaining 48 games over a stretch of 105 days. Hell, they only play 25 games over the next two months, with just five back-to-backs sprinkled in. They played freaking seven back-to-backs in December alone! WTF?

I mean, think of all the grumpy beat writers out there.

JM: Are there any other kind?

MT: Oh, really quickly: The Spurs were 8-8 without Kawhi last season and were outscored by a total of 22 points; this season, they’re 4-7 without Leonard, and have been outscored by a total of 16 points. Kind of seems similar, doesn’t it?

JM: Yes, I think that points to what we were saying earlier: He’s become the Spurs’ most indispensable player, because he fills the most indispensable role.

Obviously, there’s the defensive stopper role. How many games did the Spurs lose during this stretch because they couldn’t get Damian Lillard/Russell Westbrook/Monta Ellis/Nick Young stopped. Last night in Memphis, it was Mike Conley. To make a tenuous comparison to football, I feel like Leonard has the same effect on the Spurs’ D as Deion Sanders had on the Cowboys’ defense back in the 90s. Deion would basically take away half the field. Leonard, in a sense, takes away half the court with his long arms, huge hands and instincts in the passing lanes. Without him, teams tend to score at will on the Spurs.

Offensively, his loss has been felt, too. With he and Parker out, the Spurs don’t really have anybody who can turn rebounds and stops into immediate fast-break baskets. Those three or four or five easy buckets a game would have made a huge difference during this stretch.

The Spurs don’t have another player who can do all the things Kawhi Leonard can do. Few teams do, really.

MT: Huh. Weird how that might affect the bottom line.

Anyway, got anything else? Any hot takes you care to share?

JM: Not really. My takes are pretty much re-heated and lukewarm at this point.

It will be fascinating to see where the season goes from here. Obviously, the Spurs are one hot streak away from being right in the thick of the race for home-court advantage in the first round. They are also one really bad stretch away from (shockingly!) having to fight for their playoff lives. Which would also be interesting.

One thing I know for sure: If the Spurs do somehow wind up in the draft lottery, they’ll win it. They’re remarkably good at that.

You can find Jeff and his delightful Twitter persona @JMcDonald_SAEN and at MySA.com’s Spurs Nation.

Follow @Matthew_Tynan