Friday, March 6th, 2009...9:00 am
What if Drew Gooden Stays?
In an article dated for today, Mike Monroe tells us that Drew Gooden is “ready to find a home.” Quoting from the column:
“R.C. kind of made this thing happen,” Gooden said. “When he learned about me having a possible buyout from Sacramento, he was the first one on it. That kind of lets you know there is a need for you, rather than having a luxury.
“A lot of teams were calling as soon as they found out I was bought out, but San Antonio was the best fit for me, and not only for the rest of the year. I think there might be a future here for me.”
What should we make of this?
To start, it appears that the Spurs are far more cautious than Gooden. In the same article R.C Buford shows his hand:
“He brings some youth and athleticism to the program,” Buford said. “We need to get him healthy and see how he fits. You never now until you get people how he fits.”
In other words, the Spurs are happy to have Gooden but have not yet committed themselves to anything beyond this season. He’ll spend the next several months auditioning for a role.
If he can maintain his health, I have no doubt that Gooden will improve the team. It’s difficult to say what price he’ll demand in the open market, but this economy should help keep his price tag at a reasonable level. Nevertheless, the Spurs are strapped for cash next summer. Unless they trade for a player, they’ll be limited to rookie deals and exception money. If you remember your high school Collective Bargaining Agreement, you’ll note that Drew Gooden’s bird rights were forfeited as part of his buyout. In order for the Spurs to resign him they would need to resource their exception pool. Gooden would slurp up most, if not all, of their MLE. Is that where the Spurs want to tie up their MLE? Possibly, but they are long overdue for an upgrade at small forward, as well.
In 2010, they’ll have money to spend. The Spurs, no doubt, have hopes of landing an impact player that summer. But with a shrinking cap, the looming extension of Manu Ginobili, and the 2010 unrestricted free agent status of Roger Mason Jr., their free agent money might come up well short of an All-Star if Gooden is resigned to a pricey deal. The truth is, they might not be able to afford an impact player even without a Gooden contract reducing their available cap. So much depends on Ginobili, little red wheelbarrow that he is.
Then there is the Ian Mahinmi question. Next year’s bigs include Duncan, Thomas, Bonner, Mahinmi, Oberto and, perhaps, Gooden. Beyond this, I’m confident James Gist will receive a training camp invite. Robertas Javtokas remains a remote possibility for the Spurs, who still own the soon to be free agent’s draft rights. But I don’t think Javtokas will ever play in the NBA-the Spurs could not offer the money he’d require or provide the necessary playing time guarantees. He’s good enough for somebody’s bench, but he missed his opportunity a few years ago. Finally, some will wonder about how the Tiago Splitter puzzle piece fits into this picture. I’m not sure it does. But there, I’ve laid it on the table. Splitter doesn’t have a buyout until 2010, so he’s strictly a long-term consideration at this point. He’s not likely to take a buyout that will decrease his annual income to a fraction of his current salary. If the CBA is redone to address the rookie scale issue, Splitter could play in the NBA in 2012. We’re getting beyond this discussion, but a 28 year old Tiago Splitter would be a hot commodity that summer.
I’ve just thrown several names at you, and without a single mention of Pops Mensah-Bonsu. I’m proud of myself. My point is this: the Spurs have too many big options for one roster. If they resign Gooden, they’ll likely look to create roster space through a trade. If they are willing to take a risk on the Ian Mahinmis and James Gists of the world, the Spurs could court creativity in the early weeks of summer and pursue someone else’s salary dump. If Chad Ford is to be believed, teams will be dumping contracts in early July.
For the record then, the Spurs could offer a package of expiring deals worth nearly 12 million in Thomas, Oberto, and Bowen. The nice thing here is that both Oberto and Bowen are on non-guaranteed contracts, so their collective cost could be reduced to around 8 million immediately after the any such trade is completed. Moreover, it all comes off the books by the summer of 2010. Thomas is still a productive center and would help someone’s bench. The Spurs would likely sweeten any such deal with a draft pick(s) and, perhaps, player rights. Ah, now you see why I mentioned Javtokas and Splitter. There is a design, my friends. There is a design.
If the Spurs went this route, they would be taking on a big contract and essentially foregoing the 2010 frenzy. Put differently, they’d be reloading a summer earlier than expected. Unfortunately, this kind of trade speculation thrives on paper but rarely gets off the page. Still, I suspect the Spurs will take another hard look at trading for a player like Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, or Josh Childress this summer. That is, if Drew Gooden works out.
Suppose the Spurs win the title? Does that change the equation? To my mind, it doesn’t. If the Spurs re-sign Gooden, it’s in their best interest to make a play for an impact player. The questions surrounding Gooden have much to do with the long-term salary cap structure and less with upcoming playoff success, or lack thereof. The Spurs could set themselves up to remain competitive for the remainder of Duncan’s contract by retaining a productive Gooden and trading for an impact swing. They could render 2010 superfluous.
I’m not trying to provide answers with this post. Instead, I’m trying to frame a discussion. Anyone who thinks they know what the Spurs should do before Gooden has played a single minute with San Antonio is foolish, at best. Nevertheless, it is an interesting discussion to kick around for the remainder of the season and into the summer.
22 Comments
March 6th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Exellent article, Tim. I only found this website after it became part of the True Hoop network, and it has quickly become my #1 visit each morning to get interesting insight on the Spurs season. It’s well written and thoughtful posts like this that keep me coming back.
I like the idea of reloading this summer as opposed to waiting until the summer of 2010. When you wrote your post about Duncan being the window, I posted a comment stating that I’d rather stand pat than mortgage the future. However, that comment was specifically for the VC trade, since I feel he is in his waning years. I would definitely be onboard with making a trade this summer if we could land somebody who could help contribute significantly for the next 5 years, like Richard Jefferson.
It is quite obvious that the Spurs are in desperate need of an upgrade at the 3, and I’m not sure they can wait one more year. Finley and Bowen just aren’t cutting it anymore. That is completely independent of whether or not Gooden works out. If the Spurs can land a major piece this offseason, I think they should pursue it regardless of implications to the 2010 free agent class.
March 6th, 2009 at 10:12 am
[...] 48 Minutes of Hell » Blog Archive » What if Drew Gooden Stays? [...]
March 6th, 2009 at 10:21 am
I have no idea what the Spurs will do but enjoyed reading about it.
However, my favorite part of your blog: “So much depends on Ginobili, little red wheelbarrow that he is.”
The English teacher in me love the allusion. Hooray for W.C.W.
March 6th, 2009 at 10:43 am
I hashed out similar scenario when I heard of Gooden’s intention to join the Spurs. My 09/10 roster at the start of the season looks like this…..Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Bonner, Gooden, Mason, Hill, Mihinmi, Hairston (previous draft picks) Gist and Williams. With the expiring contracts of Thomas, Oberto and Bowen the Spurs could go after a mid-level type wing man of the caliber of Maggette without cutting too much into their cap space for 2010/11. Check out my blog….. http://theorangerock.blogspot.com/
March 6th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Duncan/Gooden duo could put points on the board. I don’t see why we can’t make this long term. Duncan needs a formidable big man next to him. Duncan, Gooden, temporarily Wallace, Bonner could equal a championship next year.
March 6th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Lakers or Celtics wouldn’t even have the depth at PF/C
March 6th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
The only thing we can really do is just wait and see how Gooden works out for the remainder of the season. The Spurs desperately need an upgrade at the 3, and I agree they can’t wait much longer. As Manu’s injury shows, there needs to be another person on the roster that can create his own shot and get into the paint as much as Tony does. It’s great to role out Mason, Bowen, and Finley because they will get their points, but we need somebody who is going to make the other team’s 2 or 3 work. Kobe, Lebron, Pierce, Melo can all take breaks on D as they stand and guard the 3 point line against our shooters. Getting a 3 who can drive will cause more match up problems and make those players work on both ends of the court.
And I’m sure this will be greeted with lots of negative feedback, but why resign Gooden when I’m sure we could get somebody of his caliber in the draft. What about Hansbrough from UNC? I know Pop doesn’t like playing rookies, but Hansbrough is about the same player Gooden is. He’s an inch shorter, same weight, same outside game. Everyone keeps mentioning Gooden’s ability to focus on defense and understand rotations, well Hansbrough is an under rated defender and would bring emotion and hustle, which is something that is sorely needed. Gooden is considered a “big man” that will help Timmy, but he’s not that good defensively and isn’t that physical. I think they could find something just as good for cheaper, while still allowing them options to bring in some other players. Hansbrough isn’t going to be an All Star, but he’s the type of player that would fit in well with San Antonio.
March 6th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
I don’t think signing Rasheed Wallace would be worth ruining cap figures for 2010. He is definitely not the same player he used to be. He has maybe two years left beyond this one, and not at the championship level ‘Sheed.
And like Buford said, this is Gooden’s tryout. I’d be hesitant to start saying we want to sign him to a longer term deal before we even see him play in the Siver and Black once.
March 6th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
I want Cap’n Jack Back in Silver and Black!
March 6th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Greg, Hansborough isn’t even in Chad Ford’s top 30 anymore. Ford mentions that his ceiling is as a Mark Madsen type player. But the draft is an interesting thought, nonetheless.
However, Gooden has proven that he can put up numbers in the NBA. Heck, he was arguably the 2nd best player for the Cavs when they faced the Spurs in the finals a couple of years ago. The draft is always a gamble, even for the Spurs, who are better evaluators than most other franchises.
In the end, we are just going to see how Gooden’s performs on the team, and argue about what the Spurs should do when we get there.
March 6th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
“Suppose” the SPuRS win the Championship? Let others suppose, Pop is intent on making it happen. Ducan made it clear “THIS YEAR is the window,” when he vetoed trading the has-bench.
This year is “the window,” because even if Finley and JV find new teams (a HUGE if), another year will not be kind to contributions from Thomas, Bowen and Oberto. Without a team that willing to offer valuable trade those three contracts (a HUGER if), our window closes at least until their contracts expire, because an aged bench looks even worse as Tim’s “not-as-dominant” nights become more frequent.
Bryan, VC will be much more productive than Richard Jefferson over the next two years, but whatever. GM speculation can be replaced now with coaching speculation.
Mason, the Lakers proably feel just fine with how they match up Gasol/Bynum/Odom/Ariza, especially scoring-wise. In Gooden, the SPuRS added “potential.” In this case, defense for stretches of a game, just like Stoudemire was expected to add badly needed scoring bursts last year. We already know what to expect when Gooden is depended on as a key piece.
Ken, I don’t know enough about poetry to know if a red wheelbarrow is a dependable thing. In statistical models, Manu is our “confouding variable” towards a championship, fluctuating in influence as either an independent or dependent variable of circumstance. With a healthy Manu, it doesn’t matter if the Spurs still don’t match up “on paper.” Or as my English teacher would break out the red pen for, Manu is our HUGEST “if.”
March 6th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
I understand Hansbrough isn’t going to be the end all answer, but I still think getting younger is better. In a perfect world, Splitter would be here playing, but he’s not. I know Gooden was productive in the Finals against us, but if he’s that good or solid, why has he been traded so much? It can’t be all about financial reasons. The Cavs run a similar system to ours and they didn’t feel Gooden was a good fit. Illgauskas is a big who plays on the perimeter and doesn’t like to be in the paint. (as a previous post mentioned allowing Timmy to do more of now) But the Cavs had to get Ben Wallace in order to protect the basket and rebound because they weren’t happy with Gooden.
Also, I wouldn’t use Chad Ford as the end all for draft stats. I mean, where did he have George Hill ranked last year? Was he in the top 30? Were Tony and Manu? And I think I remember reading that Chad Ford had Oden as his number 1, can’t miss prospect 2 years back. Ask the Thunder how much they are enjoying Durant. And didn’t Chad Ford love Darko? I’m not trying to pick a fight, I’m just saying that I think Hansbrough can bring more to the table than people think. I’ve watched almost every game he’s played, and he would run circles around Mark Madsen.
March 6th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I don’t think Sheed has the mental fodder to be a Spur… By saying this i am not suggesting that Drew is a better basketball player and he is not, BUT; Gooden has a chance to sign a 4, 5 year deal with us around 5, 6 million per if he ends up panning within our system…
March 6th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
I couldn’t agree with you more about Ford, Greg. People get draft prospects wrong all the time. Like I had mentioned, the draft is a pretty big gamble.
The thing about Manu, Tony, and George Hill is that they were under the radar guys. When you have somebody who is reigning Naismith Award winner and people still aren’t very high on him, I just think that is a little telling that he probably won’t pan out as an NBA player. But who knows… maybe he will.
We can always hope that someday Hansborough is on a championship team and completely puts Madsen’s celebration dance skills to shame. Then, he would completely outshine Madsen in every way possible.
March 6th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
I can’t wait to see how Gooden works out next to Tim. Hopefully being the 4th, 5th or 6th best player on the team will allow him to just do the things that he is good at. If he plays well and the Spurs do well in the playoffs, I’d love to see them add him to the roster for a couple more years. Of course, it might not work out at all with Gooden.
I’d vote for making a trade this offseason rather than waiting for 2010. It’s just such a gamble to compete against other teams in the free agent market. At least with a summer 2009 trade the Spurs would have more control over who they can add to the team.
March 6th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Kind of a side note - the media has been talking about how Gooden is a goofball who makes poor decisions, but no one has mentioned the 2007 finals: Varejao was the one who made poor decisions. Gooden was the only player other than LBJ who could get buckets against the Spurs, ridiculous haircut and all. He’s definitely had some minutes under pressure. Now to get him healthy…
March 6th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Greg - The Spurs don’t need emotion and hustle. We’ve had the highest win percentage in major sports for the last decade because of our quiet, assassin-like approach to the game. The last thing we need is a (rich man’s?) Mark Madsen running around looking like a complete goof ball. We already have Bonner, so we’re good to go in the bouncy white boy department. Plus Psycho T is too small to play the 4 and will never play the 3.
kman - Thanks for the line up for 09/10 roster, saved me a lot of surfing. My rudimentary salary calculations/estimations for 09/10 season are as follows:
Timmy - $21M
Tony - $12M
Manu - $10M
Mason - $4M
Bonner - $3M
Gooden - $6M
Hill and Mahinmi at around $1M each
Gist, Hairston, and Williams combining for $2M
Gooden will sign for less (assuming we extend him an offer, that is) because he’s sick of moving around and will enjoy the winning atmosphere in SA.
All this rambling for this: With the salary cap expected to decrease to around $55M for 09/10, my expected/fuzzy math salaries of the players listed above will equal to $60M. Looks like all of our careful planning was for naught.
March 6th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
The roster mentioned above is following the forgone conclusion that we dump Oberto, Thomas, and Bowen.
March 6th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
i like the prospects of bringing in splitter, gist and pops mensa bonsu for the next season. they will bring in a solid frontline. a maturing hill, hairston and williams will really add speed and athleticism that is seemingly lacking with the spurs. off course, the coro of tim, manu and tony will still be around for another 4-5 seasons but their talents should be complemented or supplemented by a formidable second unit. gooden i think will be nice addition but i doubt if he will be in for the long haul.
March 7th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
I believe our first round pick this year belongs to OKC (Kurt Thomas trade). So we’re looking at second rounder(s) only, if any. I don’t know if we’re owed any body else’s or even our own.
March 7th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Yes, or future first round picks. If I recall correctly, teams are prohibited from dealing consecutive first round picks. So the Spurs could include first round picks beginning in 2011…
March 8th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Hansbrough is a poor mans Kevin Love and I doubt a team wins anything with Kevin Love having a major role on the team. This years Adam Morrison…
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