Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers 9:30 CST December 1, 2010
LA Clippers: -6.59 (27th)
San Antonio: 8.42 (1st)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com [effective November 29, 2010] and basketballvalue.com [effective November 26, 2010]):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | 2 Year Net PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin | 0.73 | 4.7 | N/A | -10.1 | 0.2 | N/A |
| Gordon | 0.68 | 8.2 | 1.9 | -5.2 | -11.7 | 2.8 |
| Gomes | 0.62 | -8.7 | -4.8 | -10.1 | -2.9 | -0.1 |
| Butler | 0.44 | -8.6 | -3.2 | -7.7 | -7 | 0.3 |
| Aminu | 0.39 | -6.1 | N/A | -3.4 | -9.8 | N/A |
| Jordan | 0.39 | -4 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.1 | -7.2 |
| Smith | 0.27 | 3.1 | 0.4 | -0.8 | -9.8 | 1.1 |
| Kaman | 0.27 | -5.4 | -1.4 | -11.8 | -5.6 | -4.4 |
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Bledsoe,Gordon,Aminu,Griffin,Jordan -44 in 109 minutes
Bledsoe,Gordon,Gomes,Griffin,Kaman +8 in 78 minutes
Bledsoe,Gordon,Gomes,Cook,Griffin +21 in 17 minutes
Preferred method to create shots: Blake Griffin in post
At 3-15, the Clippers have the worst record in the league. Despite this poor start, the Clippers show a ton of promise. Since Baron Davis and Chris Kaman have missed significant time, the Clippers relied heavily on Eric Gordon and rookies Eric Bledsoe and Blake Griffin. All three had success in the pick-and-roll and Griffin has produced significantly in the post game. Gordon ranks 9th in the NBA in points production when heading the pick-and-roll and Bledsoe ranks 24th. (Gordon jumped from 3.5 PnR PPG last year to 13.2 this season). Blake Griffin ranks 6th in points produced on post possessions. Griffin also ranks second in total offensive rebounds. If Synergy included offensive rebounds as a continuation of the current possession, Griffin could rank as high as 3rd or 4th in post production.
Appropriate Spurs counter: Dare him to shoot and don’t help too early
Blake Griffin is one of the best finishers in the game, but if you can keep him away from the rim, he is subpar. Although his 43.5% rate on field goal attempts inside 10 feet (but not at the rim) is well below average, he takes a lot of such attempts. (His 85 shots attempted rank 6th in the league). In addition, Griffin shoots a poor 32% from beyond 15 feet and has shot 59% from the line in all three college and pro seasons. In the Spurs previous game against the Clippers, there were times that Tiago Splitter practically dared him to shoot.
Griffin is a very willing passer and if you double him too early or from his line of view, he can burn you. Sebastian Pruiti breaks down Griffin’s passing abilities over at NBA Playbook. The Spurs were very effective in disguising and timing their double teams against Griffin the last time these two teams met.
There isn’t enough data to confirm this, but Splitter could be a good matchup against Griffin. He is generally well positioned and long, and he boxes out well. In truth, the Spurs preformed well against Griffin no matter who defends him, but they look to send fewer doubles with Splitter guarding him.
Griffin is very talented and is certainly capable of figuring out the Spurs and several of his missed shots were layups he typically converts, but it seems the Spurs have discovered a good strategy to defend him.
Defensive Weakness: isolate Bledsoe and post up Griffin/Jordan
The season is still fairly young, but the Clippers rank third to last in the league in PPP surrendered on isolation possessions. Eric Bledsoe has been the scored on more than any other Clipper in this play type; frequently allowing his man to get to the rim rather easily. When the teams met earlier in the season, Bledsoe defended Parker almost exclusively . Parker generally attacked Bledsoe on pick-and-rolls, but the Spurs could probably benefit from running a few more isolations for Parker.
Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have also defended the post poorly (Jordan also struggled in this facet in prior seasons). Jordan is a much better shot blocker than Griffin, but appears to be less disciplined at times. Tim Duncan is probably the player most apt to take advantage of Griffin and, especially, Jordan.
Conclusion
The Spurs advantages against the Clippers only magnify with Baron Davis and Chris Kaman absent. The Spurs should teach the Clipper’s young guns a thing or two.
