Dizzy Reading: How the Spurs Can Move to No. 2
Do you like it when your head spins? If you answered ‘yes,’ then keep reading all the words written below. There is a fairly simple scenario that would give the Spurs the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs, but San Antonio does not totally control its own destiny. It’s gonna need a little help. Man, the race between the second, third, fifth, and sixth seeds in the West is nuts.
(Side note: To make an already tricky-ass explanation of the tiebreak scenarios a little bit easier, I’m eliminating the Trail Blazers from this discussion. They’re essentially locked in at No. 4 because they’ve won their division, but they’ve got 28 losses. Shit would have to go pretty badly for the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, and Clippers for Portland’s position to change.)
The Spurs do not HAVE to win out in order to get the second seed, but if they drop a game it’s going to be really, really difficult. Two losses would make it damn near impossible. So, here’s the simple way to make it happen: If San Antonio beats Houston tonight and wins out, it would need the Grizzlies to lose once and the Rockets to win out (after tonight) to ensure the jump to No. 2 in the conference. In that scenario, it would win the division — which would guarantee a top-four finish — and bump ahead of the Clippers into the second spot because Golden State won the Pacific.
Basically, it really comes down to tonight’s game. If the Spurs win, they put themselves in the driver’s seat by ensuring that, if there’s a three-way tie atop the Southwest Division, they’d win the tiebreaker by virtue of the fact they’d have the best combined head-to-head record between San Antonio, Memphis, and Houston at 5-3. But if San Antonio wins tonight and finish in that three-way tie, and the Clippers finish the season with a better record, LAC would be the second seed and the Spurs would move to third.
The tricky part is, should the Spurs win out and the Grizzlies only lose once, San Antonio would need Houston to win out as well. This is because it would hold the three-way divisional tiebreaker and the advantage over Houston, but Memphis owns the individual head-to-head with the Spurs. So if the Spurs beat Houston and win out, but the Rockets end up losing again after that, San Antonio would need Memphis to lose at least two games.
Everybody good?
Wait, there’s more! Because I’m insane and so are some of you, HERE IS A LOOK AT THREE SCENARIOS THAT WOULD GIVE SAN ANTONIO THE SECOND SEED (if it does not win out):
Spurs lose tonight, Houston wins tiebreaker: 1. San Antonio would have to win its final two games. 2. The Rockets would have to lose all three games remaining on their schedule after tonight. 3. Memphis would have to lose three out of its remaining four games. 4. The fighting Doc Riverses would have to drop at least one game.
(Note: The Grizz and Clips play on Saturday night, so that’s kind of a big game. At this point, Spurs fans should be rooting for the Clippers.)
Spurs beat Houston, lose one of their final two games: 1. Rockets would have to lose one — AND ONLY ONE — of their final three games. 2. Grizzlies would have to lose at least two of their final four games. 3. Clippers would have to lose once.
(Note: Should the Rockets lose more than once in this scenario, the Grizzlies would have to lose at least three of their final four games.)
Spurs beat Houston, lose final two games: 1. Rockets would have to lose two — AND ONLY TWO — more games. 2. Grizzlies must lose at least three of their remaining games. 3. Clippers would have to lose two of their final three games.
(Note: Much like it is in the previous scenario, should Houston lose all four of its remaining games, the Spurs would then need Memphis to lose all four of its final games. This is super duper unlikely.)
As for the sixth, fifth, and third seeds: San Antonio can lose out and stay at six. If the Spurs win out, they’re guaranteed the third seed (as long as Houston wins out, too), regardless of other outcomes, by virtue of their combined head-to-head record between themselves, the Rockets, and the Clippers.
The fifth-seed situation is a bit more convoluted, but basically, the Spurs would have to lose once and get a combination of things to happen with those other three teams to land in that 4-v-5 matchup. And remember, if the team that grabs the fifth seed has a better record than Portland (assuming they stay in fourth), we’ll get that weird situation where the fifth seed gets home court in the first round.
Lastly, if the Spurs win tonight and the Clippers win tomorrow, and all four teams (MEM, LAC, SAS, HOU) wind up in a four-way tie at season’s end, San Antonio will grab the second seed.
So there ya go. That should make things more interesting during the last week of the season, provided the dizzy-bat race you just ran over the previous 650 words didn’t make you sick.
Personally, I’m hoping the Spurs find their way into the 2-v-7, 3-v-6 side of the bracket. I want the potential for a San Antonio vs. Golden State Western Conference Finals. The rest of the West doesn’t want that — they want the Spurs and Warriors to eat each other up in the second round so it’s only necessary for the other side of the bracket to face just one of them in order to make it through — but fans sure as hell should. It’ll be fun, regardless, but we can hope.
Happy basketballing, friends!
(Another note: If anything I wrote is incorrect, set a fire in the comment section. I can be an idiot sometimes.)
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