Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets

by Scott Sereday

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets 7:30 CST March 12, 2011

Last week was exam crunch time for me. The Spurs managed to pass two small tests this week against the Pistons (111-104) on Wednesday and the Kings (108-103) on Friday, but the matchup against the Rockets tonight should prove to be a tougher task.

The Spurs won both matchups against the Rockets in San Antonio this season, but this time the Spurs will be the visitors. The Rockets also changed a couple pieces since their last meeting. A 32 year old Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith were traded to Memphis while Aaron Brooks was shipped to Phoenix. The Rockets received Goran Dragic, DeMarre Carroll and Hasheem Thabeet and two future 1st round pick as compensation. In limited minutes Dragic has been more efficient with Houston while Thabeet has only contributed 4 minutes. Despite the apparent future perspective motivating these moves, the Rockets currently have a 17% chance to make the playoffs according to basketball-reference.

Although Scola is questionable for tonight’s game, most other contributors remain in place. My advanced scouting report on the Rockets discusses a potential strategy for the Spurs.

Unlike the Spurs, the Rockets are not known for running the pick and roll. However, the two times these teams met, the Rockets ran that play type more frequently than the Spurs. In total, the Rockets ran pick and rolls 50% more frequently than their typical rate. Despite this preference for the pick and roll, it didn’t really work. Houston’s ball handlers only scored 27 points on 37 pick and rolls. Although Rockets ball handlers were unable to score on the pick and roll, the roll man did contribute an additional 22 points on 17 possessions. The Rockets also had success crashing the boards. They had 40% more putbacks than thier season average and scored 22 points on 21 such plays.

The Spurs has significant advantages in a couple efficient play types. The transition game led to a 42-24 advantage for San Antonio. Throughout the season, the Rockets score on cuts more frequently than the Spurs, but the Spurs also held a 24-19 advantage on those plays. The Spurs ran isolation sets at about 60% of their typical frequency, but did average 1.13 points per possessions on these plays.

Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson led the Spurs offense when the Rockets came to town this season. Jefferson averaged 20 PPG, thanks in large part to 6 of 8 shooting on three point attempts. Manu averaged 25, making over 50% of his field goal attempts while shooting a combined 8 of 17 from three point range. Despite his scoring successes, Manu was only able to make 2 layups and both required the assistance of his teammates. I wouldn’t expect Manu to be able to continue making such a high percentage of difficult shots. However, with Battier gone and no shot blocker in sight (Battier still comfortably leads the Rockets lead in blocks), it might be easier for him to get to the rim.

Parker also averaged 19 PPG and nearly 10 APG in these two games. 7 of Parker’s assists resulted in layups or dunks for his fellow Spurs. Surprisingly, Parker only made 7 of his own 16 layups. Is this a good sign that he was getting to the rim or a bad sign that he couldn’t finish? I’d say a bit of both, but overall I expect this pattern to lead to more good than bad.

For the Rockets, Hayes was the primary catalyst on the boards. He grabbed 9 offensive in 56 minutes of play in San Antonio. The Spurs should be very aware of his presence when the Rockets shoot.

Lowry only played the second of these games but was a difference maker. He contributed 7 assists (3 on layups or dunks) and scored 15 points on 11 shots (creating 3 layups for himself). Lowry’s impact could have been even greater had he made more than 2 of 5 free throws and 1 of 5 threes. (Lowry has improved as a three point threat this season.)

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Houston Rockets: 1.50 (13th)
San Antonio: 6.56 (1st)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Rockets Player Ratings 3-11

Player	G	MPG	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Luis Scola	65	32.8	25.8	108	109	0.109	-1.36
Kyle Lowry	62	33.2	18.2	115	111	0.123	6.12
Kevin Martin	64	31.3	29.5	118	112	0.182	-3.6
Shane Battier	59	30.8	12.3	116	109	0.099	4.04
Chuck Hayes	58	25.9	12.6	122	107	0.147	3.91
Courtney Lee	65	19.5	18.2	109	112	0.077	-1.73
Chase Budinger	63	19.9	20.4	110	110	0.095	0.38
Jordan Hill	58	16.7	17.3	103	110	0.059	-5.52
Brad Miller	51	17.3	16.6	118	109	0.142	-0.36
Aaron Brooks	34	23.9	26.1	99	114	0.016	-3.47
Patrick Patterson	36	13.5	16.2	118	110	0.125	N/A
Jared Jeffries	24	11.8	10.4	91	109	0.009	4.53
Terrence Williams	21	13.8	24.8	80	109	-0.094	-3.39
Goran Dragic	54	17.4	24.1	95	110	0.006	-4.11

Spurs Player Ratings 3-11

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Tony Parker	63	32.2	25.1	114	106	0.169	-0.63
Richard Jefferson	64	30.8	15.6	116	107	0.123	-1.18
Manu Ginobili	65	30.8	26.4	116	104	0.204	5.16
Tim Duncan	65	28.6	23	109	99	0.167	6.03
George Hill	59	28.1	17.8	116	106	0.141	-1.65
DeJuan Blair	65	22	20.4	105	99	0.135	0.3
Matt Bonner	49	21.9	12.8	133	107	0.169	3.41
Gary Neal	63	20.5	20.2	110	108	0.108	-0.65
Antonio McDyess	59	17.9	14.8	104	102	0.105	2.86
James Anderson	17	12.8	14.6	112	109	0.092	N/A
Tiago Splitter	46	11.2	17.6	111	103	0.139	N/A
Chris Quinn	39	6.6	16.4	96	108	0.03	N/A
Steve Novak	11	7	15.4	141	109	0.206	N/A

Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Rockets Player Trends 3-11

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Goran Dragic	18.5	28	9.5
Kyle Lowry	23.4	31.4	8
Patrick Patterson	25	31.8	6.8
Courtney Lee	18.5	21	2.5
Chase Budinger	22.3	24.2	1.9
Kevin Martin	27.4	27.9	0.5
Chuck Hayes	26.7	26.9	0.2
Luis Scola	28.8	27.9	-0.9
Brad Miller	26.6	25.7	-0.9
Jordan Hill	21.5	18.8	-2.7
Jared Jeffries	13.6	10.7	-2.9
Terrence Williams	15.2	7.5	-7.7

Spurs Player Trends 3-11

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Gary Neal	19.1	25.1	6
Tiago Splitter	22.1	24.3	2.2
Matt Bonner	20.7	22.5	1.8
Manu Ginobili	28.4	29.6	1.2
Steve Novak	20.6	21	0.4
Antonio McDyess	23.1	22.6	-0.5
DeJuan Blair	27.9	26.1	-1.8
Tony Parker	27.3	25.5	-1.8
Tim Duncan	32.5	30.7	-1.8
George Hill	22.4	19.3	-3.1
Richard Jefferson	17.9	14.2	-3.7
James Anderson	14	9.8	-4.2
Chris Quinn	12.3	5.7	-6.6

Lineup data

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Rockets:
Lowry, Martin, Battier, Scola, Hayes +160 in 797 minutes (+9.7 per 100 possessions)
Lowry, Martin, Budinger, Scola, Hayes +35 in 142 minutes (+10.7 per 100)
Dragic, Lee, Budinger, Patterson, Miller +15 in 32 minutes (+23.1 per 100)
Luis Scola is listed as questionable for tonight’s game and Shane Battier was recently traded to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +147 in 669 minutes (+10.4 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +65 in 101 minutes (+35.3 per 100)

The Pick

Spurs, but not by much

This should be a tougher matchup than it appears on paper. The Spurs will be playing on the road and facing a back to back. On top of that, the incentive for the Spurs to play their best players decreases as their chances to clinch the top spot in the west increases. The presence of a healthy Luis Scola could even swing the probabilities in the Rockets favor.