Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers - Who’s playing tonight?
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers 9:30 CST April 12, 2011
Not too long ago, the Spurs were coping with a six game losing streak while the Lakers were tearing through the NBA. Now it is the Lakers who are mired in a 5 game losing streak, while the Spurs have reeled off 4 straight wins. In fact, the argument could be made that the Lakers’ losing streak is more severe. In the Spurs 6 game skid, several starters missed time (most notably Duncan) and the losses were close contests against tough opponents. Although the Lakers’ losses have generally been close, they blew a couple easy matchups and their starters played significant minutes throughout. Of course, history has shown that streaks can reverse in an instant. All that matters is how the teams are playing once the playoffs begin.
I can think of 5 potentially significant implications of tonight’s game:
The Lakers’ and Spurs’ confidence
The Spurs’ playoff road (the Lakers’ seeding)
Home Court against the Bulls
Injuries and rest
Game 1 of the 1st round
The Lakers’ and Spurs’ confidence
I can’t say I feel too strongly about this factor. Do the Spurs want the Lakers’ less or more confident? I suspect the latter, but I don’t have a ton of support for my opinion. I suspect that, in the short term, overconfidence can lead to players welcoming lower percentage options, whereas lack of confidence becomes a larger issue in the long run (or when encountering a new situation, especially when the opinions of others are important). However, I am not certain of this conclusion and it is even more difficult to assess the level of impact. Even if we know what level of confidence is preferred, would resting the starters help instill confidence because the Lakers are more likely to have success? Or would it limit any potential confidence the Lakers could gain since they didn’t have to face Duncan, Ginobili, etc.?
Similarly, if the Spurs don’t “get some kinks out” in the this game, perhaps they will be more focused in the playoffs. Or will they be too hesitant to perform their optimal roles? It’s tough to tell…
The playoff road- Lakers’ seeding
The Lakers are probably the Spurs’ toughest potential playoff opponent in the West. If the Lakers lose both remaining games, there is chance they could slip as low as the 4th seed. If they win both, they will clinch the 2nd seed. If the Lakers finish with the 4th seed, the chances they meet face the Spurs will increase since it would only require one series win for each. The Lakers finishing with the 3rd seed seems ideal for the Spurs. In this scenario, the Lakers would probably play without home court advantage in round 2, so there is a better chance they will be eliminated by the time they play the Spurs. Additionally, there would presumably be a better chance the Spurs could find themselves matched against the Nuggets in round 2.
Keep in mind that I didn’t work out all the factors involved, so there could be some I overlooked with regards to the importance of seeding in the West.
Also, I don’t mean to suggest the Spurs can’t beat the Lakers, but avoiding them in the playoffs definitely improves the chances that San Antonio represents the Western conference in the finals. The Lakers would also benefit from trying to avoid the Spurs.
Injuries and rest
Injuries are always a concern at this point. If Coach Pop thinks rest will help players throughout the playoff stretch or they are banged up in any way, I am sure he will opt to sit them; and I can’t blame him for doing so. In this case, all my other points are largely meaningless.
Sealing Home Court against the Bulls
A number of things need to happen before overall home court advantage means anything. The Spurs and Bulls both need to win their respective conferences (let’s say that is 10% likely). Additionally, that series must reach a 7th game (1 in 4). Even if the Spurs lose against the Lakers, they still have a good chance to finish ahead of Chicago. Here is how the Spurs can clinch home court throughout the entire playoffs:
The Spurs WIN BOTH games or
the Spurs win ONE game AND the Bulls WIN BOTH games AND the Spurs win the resulting random drawing or
the Spurs win ONE game AND the Bulls win ONE game or
the Spurs LOSE BOTH games AND the Bulls win ONE game and the Spurs win the resulting random drawing or
the Bulls LOSE BOTH games.
Even if the home court does come into play, it only matters for 1 game and the home team is far from a guaranteed winner. That said, home court is more tangible than many other the other factors involved and should at least be considered. I estimate that there is approximately a 1 in 200 chance that home court is the difference between the Spurs winning the championship or finishing second.
Game 1 1st round
Studies have indicated that 2 days rest is the sweet spot for best performance.
Spurs upcoming schedule:
Tue, Apr 12, 2011 @ Los Angeles Lakers
Wed, Apr 13, 2011 @ Phoenix Suns
Playoffs begin Saturday April 16
Although I would be surprised if the Spurs lost in the first round. The first round in the West is much tougher than the East and should not be taken lightly.
In summary, I see more reasons to rest the starters against the Lakers than against the Suns. This strategy appears likely that it will help the Spurs chances in the first round. Additionally, there will be a lesser chance of needless injury playing the Suns since the Spurs will have a better idea of what is needed for HCA.
Hopefully, the Spurs have put in some good practice and conditioning by now. As is normal, I anticipate an increase in minutes for Parker, Duncan and Ginobili come playoff time.
Key Statistics
Lakers: 5.94 (4th)
San Antonio: 6.09 (3rd)
Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:
Los Angeles Lakers Player Ratings 4-11
| Player | G | MPG | USG% | Ortg | DRtg | WS/48 | 2 Yr APM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau Gasol | 80 | 36.9 | 21.9 | 123 | 103 | 0.232 | 3.55 |
| Kobe Bryant | 80 | 33.8 | 35 | 111 | 105 | 0.177 | 3.46 |
| Lamar Odom | 80 | 32 | 19.6 | 118 | 103 | 0.183 | 4.44 |
| Ron Artest | 80 | 29.2 | 15.4 | 105 | 105 | 0.09 | 2.71 |
| Andrew Bynum | 53 | 28.1 | 17.6 | 121 | 100 | 0.21 | 1.89 |
| Derek Fisher | 80 | 27.8 | 12.8 | 105 | 107 | 0.076 | -1.57 |
| Steve Blake | 79 | 20 | 11.3 | 102 | 108 | 0.055 | -1.79 |
| Matt Barnes | 53 | 19.2 | 16.6 | 112 | 103 | 0.142 | 0.83 |
| Shannon Brown | 80 | 19.1 | 22 | 105 | 106 | 0.095 | -5.71 |
San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 4-11
| Player | G | MPG | USG% | Ortg | DRtg | WS/48 | 2 Yr APM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | 77 | 32.5 | 25.5 | 114 | 108 | 0.16 | -0.39 |
| Manu Ginobili | 79 | 30.7 | 26 | 116 | 105 | 0.197 | 6.16 |
| Richard Jefferson | 79 | 30.5 | 15.3 | 117 | 108 | 0.117 | 0.26 |
| Tim Duncan | 75 | 28.3 | 22.8 | 111 | 100 | 0.173 | 5.62 |
| George Hill | 74 | 28.3 | 18.1 | 116 | 108 | 0.138 | -1.64 |
| Matt Bonner | 64 | 21.8 | 13.3 | 124 | 107 | 0.143 | 3.61 |
| DeJuan Blair | 79 | 21.4 | 20.1 | 105 | 100 | 0.129 | -1.91 |
| Gary Neal | 78 | 20.8 | 20.6 | 110 | 109 | 0.099 | -2.75 |
| Antonio McDyess | 72 | 19 | 14.9 | 105 | 103 | 0.103 | 2.36 |
| Tiago Splitter | 58 | 12.2 | 17.7 | 113 | 103 | 0.153 | N/A |
| James Anderson | 25 | 10.6 | 16 | 107 | 110 | 0.072 | N/A |
| Steve Novak | 21 | 7.9 | 16.3 | 140 | 109 | 0.205 | N/A |
| Chris Quinn | 40 | 6.8 | 16.8 | 98 | 110 | 0.031 | N/A |
Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:
Los Angeles Lakers Player Trends 4-11
| Player | Season | Last 10 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Artest | 15.4 | 18.5 | 3.1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 30.1 | 30.6 | 0.5 |
| Pau Gasol | 32.9 | 32.8 | -0.1 |
| Andrew Bynum | 31.9 | 31.4 | -0.5 |
| Steve Blake | 12.6 | 12.1 | -0.5 |
| Lamar Odom | 29.2 | 27.1 | -2.1 |
| Derek Fisher | 13 | 9.3 | -3.7 |
| Matt Barnes | 23.2 | 18.9 | -4.3 |
| Shannon Brown | 18.1 | 6.2 | -11.9 |
San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 4-11
| Player | Season | Last 10 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan | 33.1 | 37.6 | 4.5 |
| Tiago Splitter | 24.1 | 28.2 | 4.1 |
| Gary Neal | 18.8 | 21.4 | 2.6 |
| George Hill | 21.5 | 22.9 | 1.4 |
| Richard Jefferson | 17.7 | 18.6 | 0.9 |
| Antonio McDyess | 23 | 22.2 | -0.8 |
| Tony Parker | 27.1 | 26.2 | -0.9 |
| Matt Bonner | 19.6 | 18.6 | -1 |
| Manu Ginobili | 28.3 | 24.9 | -3.4 |
| James Anderson | 14 | 10.5 | -3.5 |
| DeJuan Blair | 27.6 | 22.7 | -4.9 |
| Steve Novak | 24.3 | 12.4 | -11.9 |
Lineup data
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Lakers:
Fisher, Bryant, Artest, Odom, Gasol +253 in 905 minutes (+14.8 per 100 possessions)
Blake, Brown, Barnes, Odom, Gasol +55 in 208 minutes (+12.8 per 100)
Fisher, Bryant, Artest, Odom, Bynum +60 in 144 minutes (+19.5 per 100)
Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +147 in 687 minutes (+10.2 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +62 in 227 minutes (+14.7 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +63 in 108 minutes (+33.0 per 100)
Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Bonner, Duncan +43 in 63 minutes (+34.3 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, Splitter +41 in 51 minutes (+39.3 per 100)
The Pick
Lakers
I think the Lakers will be more motivated to play this one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Spurs rest several starters.