Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets 9:30 CST December 16, 2010
Denver: 3.17 (9th)
San Antonio: 8.63 (3rd)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective December 15, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective December 15, 2010):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | 2 Year Net PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afflalo | 0.74 | -1.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 6.9 | -2.63 |
| Anthony | 0.67 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.4 | -1.5 | 5.37 |
| Billups | 0.59 | -2.4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -4.01 |
| Harrington | 0.58 | -6 | -3.5 | 4.9 | -1 | -0.56 |
| Nene | 0.57 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 7.39 |
| Lawson | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3.1 | -0.17 |
| Smith | 0.43 | 1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.27 |
| Williams | 0.42 | -5.1 | -1.2 | -2.1 | 5.7 | -0.26 |
| Forbes | 0.23 | -5.2 | N/A | -4.1 | 4.4 | N/A |
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Billups,Afflalo,Anthony,Williams,Nene -26 in 209
Lawson,Afflalo,Anthony,Williams,Nene +16 in 39
Lawson,Afflalo,Anthony,Harrington,Nene +33 in 22
The Nuggets played few minutes without Billups, Andersen or Martin last year. This season, they have outscored their opponents by about 2 points per 48 minutes in such a scenario.
Preferred method to create shots: ISO/Post Carmelo Anthony
The Denver Nuggets run isolation sets more often than any other team in the NBA and Carmelo Anthony gets a lion’s share of these touches. Anthony, the subject of frequent trade conversation for much of the season, is one of the league’s marquee players. He has consistently ranked near the top of the NBA in isolation possessions and total scoring over the past few seasons. He and Nene are also Denver’s top options in the post.
In addition to Anthony’s offensive production, Chauncey Billups is also a very efficient scoring option who is capable of creating for himself and his teammates. Billups is one of the best at scoring from the outside and getting to the line (Ginobili isn’t so bad in these regards himself). Thankfully for the Spurs, Billups is expected to miss the next week.
Arron Afflalo, Ty Lawson and Nene are also key contributors to the Nuggets offense.
Appropriate Spurs counter: Stay disciplined, send help and keep Carmelo outside
Carmelo Anthony has a wealth of offensive game. He is not incredibly athletic nor an elite shooter; but he is strong and very skilled. Moreover, he’s an athlete with enough shooting ability to keep you honest. If you misplay him defensively, he is sure to burn you. If you play him well, he will do his best to expose you anyway. What he really excels at is making a move and finishing with one dribble. The best way to limit his effectiveness seems to be keeping him from setting up too close to the basket and sending help his way. According to Synergy Sports, the Nuggets are averaging 1.09 points per possession (PPP) with Carmelo Anthony setting up in the post (86th percentile), but only 0.89 PPP on Anthony’s isolation plays (54th percentile). (These rates have been closer in the past.)
Often times Anthony will try to shoot quickly before the help comes. He’s not a bad shooter, but he isn’t as effective as many other elite scorers. Anthony’s three point rate is less than gaudy and his effective field goal percentage ([FG+3P/2]/[FGA]) on jump shots is typically in the low 40% range. Anthony is also less likely to draw fouls when he settles for jumpers.
Richard Jefferson defends Anthony almost exclusively in the post-Bowen era. The last time these teams met, RJ aggressively forced Melo towards the baseline, relying on defensive help (often from Duncan). There are a couple things I like about this strategy, but there are also a couple potential issues. I suspect that Anthony is too strong and skilled to for RJ and most others to defend without help and I think advertising the help defense encourages Anthony to shoot early. However, Anthony doesn’t really show strong differences in efficiency when he goes baseline compared to driving middle. Also, Anthony tends to take rushed jump shots once he sees help on the way, even without the defender forcing him in one direction. Giving him too much room baseline increases his chances of getting inside and drawing fouls. In prior matchups, the Spurs were able to draw a couple charges, but such plays often end up with the offensive player at the line. Additionally, Anthony was able to get some easy layups against the Spurs because the help defense wasn’t able to shift in time. If the Spurs choose this approach again, they should be careful to give the help defense time to set up before RJ forces Anthony baseline.
Defensive Strategy: Attack Nene in the post and Melo on ISOs
Nene is solid defensively, and is among the most efficient offensive scorers in the NBA, but he tends to commit a lot of fouls. Nene is currently committing a career low 3.6 fouls per 36 minutes. Going into the post could put him in foul trouble early. Over the last few seasons, the Nuggets have merely been an average team with Nene on the bench.
Even if the Spurs are unable to get Nene in foul trouble, the Nugget’s post game has also struggled this season. There is little doubt they are hurt by the absences of Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin. Both players have missed most of the season due to injuries.
In addition to utilizing Duncan, Blair and Splitter in the post, the Spurs can also target Carmelo Anthony on a few isolation plays. Richard Jefferson is a decent scorer on isolation plays and Anthony typically ranks in the lower half of isolation defenders.
Conclusion
This game has potential to be an interesting matchup, but the Nuggets, who already missed Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin for most of the season, will be also be playing without their leader Chauncey Billups. The fact that the Spurs will be playing the second of back-to-back games on the road makes this matchup a little riskier, but once again, the odds favor San Antonio to build upon their impressive record.
Pingback: Tweets that mention Spurs Stats | Advanced Scouting | Denver Nuggets 12/16/2010 -- Topsy.com()