Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers

by Scott Sereday

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers 6:00 CST January 7, 2011

SRS ranks:

Indiana: -0.85 (18th)
San Antonio: 8.00 (2nd)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 6, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 4, 2011):

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Collison, Dunleavy, Granger, McRoberts, Hibbert +65 in 240 minutes (+13 per 48 MP)

Preferred method to create shots: Roy Hibbert in the post

Just two years ago Danny Granger appeared to be on his way to superstar status, averaging nearly 26 PPG with a 114 offensive rating. This season, perhaps still bothered by an offseason ankle injury, Granger has struggled to convert inside shots with the same frequency and has settled for more 2 point jumpers. These factors have contributed to his efficiency to dropping sharply to an offensive rating of 101. Despite this dropoff, Granger is still an effective for the Pacers on isolation plays.

Roy Hibbert is an emerging as one of the better post threats in the league. He has scored more points from the blocks than all except Howard, Aldridge, Brook Lopez and Pau Gasol. His 0.91 points per post possession (PPP) place him in the 56% percentile. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the only current NBA starter that can match the 7-2 Hibbert in terms of height.

The Pacers also like to run the fast break and shoot the three. They draw free throws at the lowest rate in the NBA, which is indicative of a team that does not attack the rim.

Appropriate Spurs counter: Play physical and make Hibbert take jump shots

Roy Hibbert is shooting just above 25% on jump shots this season. Last year, he made merely 32% of such field goals. (This is surprising considering that Hibbert has converted well over 70% of his free throws in both seasons.) Despite this poor conversion rate, nearly half of Hibbert attempts are jumpers.

Clearly, preventing Hibbert from setting up shop too close to the hoop will be the Spurs most difficult task. If you front him, he is possibly the biggest target in the NBA right now. If you don’t, his size will enable him to work his way down low enough where he can simply dump it in after the catch.

One thing that may help the Spurs prevent easy scores for Hibbert is Hibbert’s tendency to not pass out of the post. Despite being a decent passer for a big man, he has only created opportunities for teammates on 10% of his post derived possessions this year. (League average is 17%.)

Hibbert’s favorite shot from the post is the hook shot. It may not always look pretty, but he is reasonably effective with both hands.

Additionally, the Pacer’s low frequency of drawn fouls suggests that they do not look to draw contact. If the Spurs set a physical tone to the game it could do more good than bad for this matchup.

Spurs offensive game plan: Look for the roll man opposite Roy Hibbert

The Pacers have a very good defensive team. They have allowed fewer transition scores than every team except the Magic (1 point fewer than the Spurs). They don’t allow many easy baskets and they typically defend the pick and roll well.

No doubt, Roy Hibbert provides significant value to his team’s defensive results. He averages nearly 2 blocks in 29 MPG and his size certainly alters additional attempts. Opponents have also struggled against him in the post. However, Hibbert has yet to excel at defending the pick and roll. Last year, opponents averaged 1.02 PPP when Hibbert defended them (32nd percentile). This season he has allowed 1.12 PPP (12th percentile).

Tim Duncan has been the Spurs best big man at running the pick and roll. However, Bonner and McDyess’ shooting ability makes them appealing on the pick and pop against Hibbert since he prefers to stay close to the basket defensively.

Conclusion

After a hot start, the Pacers have lost 11 of their last 16. Although this game will be played in Indiana and the Pacers have a full roster, the Spurs are likely to win and break their two game “skid”.