Spurs’ Struggles Bring on Early Breaking Point for Fans
The sky started falling around San Antonio in the wake of what might have been the worst loss of the season for the Spurs. Not around the team, but the fans.
It doesn’t help matters that Skip Bayless apparently climbed up in his First Take chair and said something about Tony Parker needing to lose weight when I’d be willing to bet he hasn’t been in the same area code as Parker this season, let alone the same locker room. Yet Twitter mentions and comment sections reveal that many readers and listeners have accepted this as an actual problem.
It doesn’t help that a local columnist scribbled words built on bad jokes and a premise based in something closer to La La Land than reality, and then later added a line of text that simultaneously flubbed said premise and gave him an excuse to pass it off as tongue-in-cheek. (Another person who hasn’t stepped foot in the AT&T Center for a Spurs game this season, by the way.)
It doesn’t help that too many people watch that junk and read that crap before melding the same talking points into their own arguments. Which is unfortunate, because in doing so you’re only making yourself an inferior debate opponent.
San Antonio’s loss on Monday night in Utah was brutal to watch (though, it should be said, the Spurs rarely ever play well in Utah). Tony Parker can’t beat anyone off the dribble anymore; Boris Diaw has become virtually nonexistent except as a last-ditch spot-up shooter; Tiago Splitter has been noticeably worse than last season on both sides of the ball and is now a regular fixture behind Aron freaking Baynes on the depth chart; Kawhi Leonard is struggling offensively because everybody else is and he isn’t a No. 1 offensive option. It’s all a vicious cycle.
Parker’s numbers have plummeted as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. He’s registered just .79 points per possession in these situations — which is in the NBA’s 58th percentile, and worse than Tyreke Evans (sorry, random-name generator) — a drop-off of roughly .14 PPP from last season, per NBA Synergy data. The eye test alone can tell you he hasn’t been right since injuring his hamstring roughly 12 weeks ago; but after that amount of time has passed, it’s fair to wonder at this point whether or not that is the actual reason for this deep lull.
From here, it’s easy to concoct a theory for San Antonio’s awful play. Without Parker’s penetration and without Diaw’s exceptional ability to act as a secondary playmaker from the post, everything looks difficult for the Spurs. Their pace is down, they’re holding onto the ball longer and shooting later in the shot clock, and the number of catch-and-shoot jumpers (their bread and butter) has dropped, per SportVU data. San Antonio is working harder on offense than it has in years, only to find worse shots than it’s regularly taken in quite some time.
But there is something interesting about another story the numbers have told — one that doesn’t exactly line up with what your eyes have revealed.
Despite Parker’s inability to find his way to the basket regularly, the Spurs are actually driving into the paint more often this season (30.9 drives per game) than they did last season (23.6 drives per game). A lot of this has to do with the fact that the initial attack hasn’t always worked and they’ve been forced to back it out and try again, but this hasn’t hurt the team’s efficiency on such plays.
San Antonio is generating .95 points per possession on drives so far this season, good for sixth best in the league; last year, the Spurs averaged .90 points per possession on drives. So not only are they driving more often, they’re doing so more efficiently.
Another thing the numbers are saying: The Spurs are getting plenty of open shots, and they’re just missing them. Per SportVU data, the team is launching 19.6 open 3-pointers per game (where the defender isn’t within four feet of the shooter), up from 18.2 last season, but is only connecting on 37.2 percent of them. During San Antonio’s title run, that number was at 40.1 percent.
It’s amazing how bad a team can look when open shots aren’t falling. It makes it feel as if all the positives are masked. You’re used to watching the Spurs hit those looks, so when they don’t go in, it’s like a punch in the gut. Missed open 3-pointers, especially for a team that’s been among the very best in that department for years, can feel like a huge letdown — a missed chance at gaining momentum.
There is no question this team has problems. As Parker stumbles around the court, as Diaw floats around the perimeter, and as Splitter continues to lose minutes to Baynes, San Antonio has seen its field-goal percentage at the basket fall from 64.3 last season to 59.6 this year (48.6 to 45.5 overall), per NBA.com.
And to be fair, we’ve seen the sort of physical toll deep playoff runs have taken on teams throughout history. San Antonio’s made it at least as far as the Western Conference Finals in three consecutive seasons, and you don’t have to look too far back to see how taxing that can be. The need to jump off the proverbial cliff has become all too tempting for Spurs fans, and I do understand the sentiment in that capacity.
The HEAT were a shell of themselves last June, as the Spurs, driven by anger and fueled by revenge, simply picked them apart in five games. Miami looked spent, and one might say San Antonio appears that way this season. But there’s a significant difference between these Spurs and those HEAT. Despite all the bad offense and missed shots, San Antonio still boasts the sixth-best defense in the league, just .1 points per 100 possessions behind an elite Memphis group. And make no mistake about it: Bad offense absolutely hurts your defense and its ability to set up properly in the half-court.
By the time the Celtics’ late-2000s run of contention was over, its defensive rating had dropped from 95.5 in 2011-12 to 100.4 the next season; before the Heat’s world came crashing down last summer, the defense allowed nearly three points per 100 possessions more to opponents during the regular season than it had the previous year — in a really weak Eastern Conference, mind you. Their defensive rating of 102.9 last year would’ve been good for 15th in the league this season.
That hasn’t happened in San Antonio, however. The Spurs’ 100.1 defensive rating is identical to last season’s, and much of it has been done with a roster that’s been in flux more often this year than last. If this were not the case, and if this defense was sitting closer to the middle of the pack than the front of the line, I’d be less inclined to stop you from edging too close to the cliff. But perhaps the most common thread among NBA Finals winners is a top defense, and one of the greatest indicators of athletic and team decline is a drop-off on that side of the ball.
Still, if the Spurs are going through this sort of offensive grind come playoff time, it might take divine intervention to help flip the switch. Even then, I’m not sure it can be done. Parker has to return to form, and postseason Diaw and Splitter must figure out what’s ailing them for their team to have any chance, but an offense that’s missing open shots in February is much more fixable than a defense that’s leaking points with two months left in the season.
In general, San Antonio is still biding its time. Despite being the 7th seed and facing what could be the team’s first ever losing Rodeo Road Trip (one more loss ensures this), Gregg Popovich is still watching his players’ minutes. Kawhi Leonard’s 31 minutes per game leads the team, and no other player is even at the 30-minute mark.
If you want to jump off now, as many of you have, that’s fine. The talking heads are giving you plenty of reason to do so. And I’m certain this comment section will cast aside the things I’ve written here as excuses. But, in all areas of life, equity is a real thing. This team has earned the benefit of the doubt, and if you subscribe to that theory, then you’re being disingenuous if you bail now.
I find it funny that, year after year, one of the major talking points you hear in analysis of the Spurs is they don’t care about the regular season. Yet, as soon as they struggle more than anticipated during the middle months of the season or fail to maintain a 60-win pace, the criticism and declaration of their demise becomes heavy.
The Spurs-fan breaking point seems to have been reached. But with 26 games still to play in the regular season and only four games separating the 3rd seed from the 7th, it sure feels a bit early for the sky to be falling.
