4-Down Podcast, Episode 29: Larry Coon

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Will the lockout please end sometime soon? Unfortunately, it doesn’t look that way.

Larry Coon, Technical Director at the University of California,Irvine and author of the ultra-valuable NBA Salary Cap FAQ, joined the 4-Down Podcast this week to give an update on collective bargaining negotiations. Or lack thereof. Larry lets us know where things stand at this point and where they may be headed.

Enjoy, and then cry yourself to sleep tonight after praying that there will be an NBA season in 2011-12.

Subscribe to the 4-Down Podcast via iTunes. Or you can can keep up using the RSS feed. You can also download the audio file (24:40, 33.9 mb) or listen below. Whatever you do, please leave us good feedback and ratings in iTunes, I hear that’s what all the cool kids are doing these days.

  • Hobson13

    Nice Podcast.  The last 6-8 minutes were very informative.  I agree with his premise that there’s virtually no chance we have a deal in place by September and only a slightly better chance we have a deal in place between September – January.  If the negotiations come down to the final minute (and they probably will) then IMO, I think it’s a 50/50 shot that a deal gets done.  Here’s how I’d break down the chances of a deal getting done.

    Between now and September – 5% chance
    Between September – January – 30% chance
    Last few days before season is entire cancelled – 50%

    These percentages are just my opinion, but everyone knows both sides have been preparing for this war for several years.  Looks like the NFL is close to an agreement.  Thank God for college football and the NFL because this is going to be a long winter…  

  • Ryan McShane

    That was a super comprehensive break down of the current CBA – I’ve listened to all of the stuff that popped up on the sidebar on ESPN, and this was the best so far. 

    A note on your revenue sharing idea… There are certain teams that play LA more often than others. The way that scheduling in an 82 game season is set up right now, each team plays:
     – every team in the opposing conference twice (once at home and once on the road)
     – every team in their own division four times (twice at home and twice on the road)
     – six of the remaining 10 teams in the conference four times (” “)
     – and the last four teams only three times (a total of six home games and six road games)
    So, assuming LA has the most lucrative TV deal (I don’t know this), 10 teams would play LAL four times, 4 teams would play LAL three times, and 15 teams would play LAL only twice. Do this 28 more times, and you would see that there would be structural inequities between teams’ second half of their tv revenue (the first half being their own cities’ revenue). Still, it’s hard to see all the owners saying, “Yeah, let’s pool all of our revenue and split it 30 ways.”

  • Ryan McShane

    That was a super comprehensive break down of the current CBA – I’ve listened to all of the stuff that popped up on the sidebar on ESPN, and this was the best so far. 

    A note on your revenue sharing idea… There are certain teams that play LA more often than others. The way that scheduling in an 82 game season is set up right now, each team plays:
     – every team in the opposing conference twice (once at home and once on the road)
     – every team in their own division four times (twice at home and twice on the road)
     – six of the remaining 10 teams in the conference four times (” “)
     – and the last four teams only three times (a total of six home games and six road games)
    So, assuming LA has the most lucrative TV deal (I don’t know this), 10 teams would play LAL four times, 4 teams would play LAL three times, and 15 teams would play LAL only twice. Do this 28 more times, and you would see that there would be structural inequities between teams’ second half of their tv revenue (the first half being their own cities’ revenue). Still, it’s hard to see all the owners saying, “Yeah, let’s pool all of our revenue and split it 30 ways.”

  • Tyler

    A few reasons I hold out hope we might see a deal sooner than we expect:
    – Peter Holt is negotiating on the owners’ behalf (along with Stern). From everything I’ve read, not only is Holt very well respected among owners and players alike, he seems reasonable and levelheaded; not someone who will play the my-way-or-the-highway game. Neither side will get everything they want (even though it looks like the owners will get the better end this time) and it’s going to take compromise from both sides. Also, as the owner of small market team, he surely understands the devastating impact a lost season could have on his franchise (and the NBA as a whole). Attendance, the value of future TV contracts, advertising rates, merchandising – they all plummet for every team if there’s a missed season.

    – The NBA has never been in a better place from a marketing POV: the playoffs attracted record viewership, worldwide exposure is at an all-time high, and there are more marketable names now than ever (you have older guys like TD, Kobe, Garnet, etc coupled with younger guys like Paul, Lebron, Wade, Durant, Griffin, Wall, and other up-and-comers). A lost season would destroy all the hard work and money the NBA has put in the last decade to grow the game here and abroad. I have a very hard time believing either side is willing to hit the reset button.

    – Everyone saw the impact baseball and hockey’s lockout had on their respective sport. It took baseball about 3 years and steroids to make it back to level and hockey still isn’t back. The NBA is much closer to baseball and hockey than it is to the NFL. Football could go away for a year, come back, and still be the largest sport in the USA by far. Not the NBA. I’d look at baseball as an example of what would happen.

    Of course, as an optimist by nature, it could all be wishful thinking. 

  • http://48minutesofhell.com Andrew A. McNeill

    Good stuff Tyler.

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