Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010...8:34 am
Advanced Scouting: Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
[Update: Carmelo Anthony will miss tonight's game with a death in the family. So, you know, remember that when reading the rest of this.]
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST December 22, 2010
Last Thursday, the Spurs won a thrilling matchup against the Nuggets. This was definitely the most exciting game of the year for me. With San Antonio leading by one, Carmelo Anthony made a runner as time expired only to be (correctly) called for a charge (drawn by Manu, of course). With Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen possibly returning from injury tonight, the Spurs could face a rejuvenated Nuggets team.
Prior to the matchup last week, I called for the Spurs to keep Carmelo Anthony outside and draw fouls on Nene.
The Nuggets ran 11 isolations, eight post-ups and six pick-and-roll plays for Carmelo Anthony. Anthony scored 31 points on 20 field goal attempts and had three assists and two turnovers. Only three of Carmelo Anthony’s baskets were assisted, and he attempted 14 free throws. Anthony scored on four of his 11 isolation possessions, but drew no fouls. He did most of his damage in the post, scoring three baskets and drawing fouls on four other plays.
Anthony scored easily any time Richard Jefferson was not matched up on him. If Jefferson is not on the floor, I would prefer that Ginobili or even Blair defend Anthony rather than smaller perimeter players like Gary Neal, - Carmelo is simply too strong for most guards.
When the Nuggets used Carmelo Anthony in isolation plays, they did a good job moving teammates around and spreading the floor. These actions made it difficult for the Spurs to send help. However, since Anthony is not the same passer as most perimeter players, the Spurs could send help more aggressive than normal. The payoff is higher and the penalty not as steep. Of Anthony’s 19 Post/Isolation plays, none resulted in teammate shots. When the Spurs were able to send help before Anthony made his move, the results were favorable for the Spurs.
Offensively, Tim Duncan was posted up nine times and responded with 12 of 18 shooting, 16 rebounds, four blocks and no turnovers. He did pass up a must-shoot potential game-winner, but overall, this was one of Duncan’s best games of the year. (Duncan’s scoring average is still down, but his effectiveness continues to quietly improve.)
The Spurs ran 34 pick-and-roll (PnR) plays on the night. This is not in contrast to their average of 29.2, but the Spurs had unusually better success when passing out of this play. In the 20 possessions the ball handler passed out of the PnR, they scored 25 points. In the 14 PnR possessions the ball handler finished, they scored 11 points. On the season, the Spurs average 1.00 points per possession (PPP) on 15.5 PnR pass-out possessions and 0.96 PPP on 13.7 other PnR possessions.
Since the 2007-08 season, the Spurs have averaged 1.04 PPP when passing out of the PnR against the Nuggets, compared to 0.74 PPP on other PnR possessions. Manu Ginobili is a better option than Tony Parker to create for teammates out the pick-and-roll. Utilizing more -Ginobili on the pick-and-roll could improve the Spurs’ chances of victory.
Nene had five fouls against the Spurs, but none of them were in the first half. Nene committed just one foul defending Duncan on the post. Despite that, posting up Duncan remains the Spurs best hope to get Nene in early foul trouble.
Team Statistics
Denver: 3.00 (8th)
San Antonio: 8.44 (3rd)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective December 16, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective December 19, 2010):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afflalo | 0.74 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 6.9 | -2.51 |
| Anthony | 0.67 | 10.8 | 4.4 | -1.5 | 4.73 |
| Billups | 0.59 | -2.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -3.85 |
| Harrington | 0.58 | -6 | 4.9 | -1 | -1.14 |
| Nene | 0.57 | 6.4 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 7.61 |
| Lawson | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 3.1 | -0.01 |
| Smith | 0.43 | 1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.17 |
| Williams | 0.42 | -5.1 | -2.1 | 5.7 | 0.33 |
| Forbes | 0.23 | -5.2 | -4.1 | 4.4 | N/A |
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Billups,Afflalo,Anthony,Williams,Nene -26 in 209
Billups,Afflalo,Anthony,Harrington,Nene +12 in 68
Lawson,Afflalo,Anthony,Williams,Nene +27 in 66
Lawson,Afflalo,Anthony,Harrington,Nene +35 in 29
Conclusion
If the Nuggets get Billups, Andersen and Martin back from injury, this game could be challenging. The Spurs will be playing without George Hill for the third straight game. Home court advantage should help give the Spurs the benefit of the doubt in any situation. However, the Spurs were lucky to pull out a W against the shorthanded Nuggets last week.
26 Comments
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:44 am
i say start with a defensive unit.
put hill on lawson.
put parker on afflalo-the guy just doesn’t know nothing but to stand and shoot 3s
put duncan on martin-the guy’s old like fuck
put mcdyess on nene
then put udoka on melo
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:55 am
It’s simply ridiculous that I can access this kind of analysis with a few mouse clicks. Great work.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:15 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jeremy Wagner. Jeremy Wagner said: RT @aamcneill48MoH: 48MoH / Advanced Scouting: Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs http://dlvr.it/BwQWb [...]
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:21 am
tr, hill will not be available for tonight’s game.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:23 am
I think our regular starting line up will do just fine. We just need a bit more intensity, if they want to start all hot and fast, great, lets just weather the storm, no way they can play at a fast pace for 48 minutes. Attack Nene, get him into foul trouble and get boards. Playing at home specially knowing we have Orlando away on a b2b will give the Spurs motivation to put this one away. It will be war tonight…
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:31 am
News Alert!!! My condolences to Carmelo Anthony for his loss, but this means he will not be in SA tonight. Our chances just got that much better.
Scott, have about an update of playing the Nuggets without Carmelo…
http://www.nba.com/nuggets/news/carmelo_anthony_12_22_2010.html
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:34 am
melo will not be playing tonight due to a death in the family. not as fortunate as it sounds, harrington has been very effective against the spurs, but for some unexplicable reason, not used as much.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:47 am
Obviously the first person did not read that melo and Hill will not be in the game.
I still believe that Spurs have an advantage over the melo-less nuggets.
Even though Kmart is coming back I feel like he will have little impact as this is basically his pre-season now.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:16 am
Trap Game!!
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:48 am
“I don’t let Tim [Duncan] do what he wants to do. Never have and never will”. Kenyon Martin said that post game, after beating a Manu-less and Parker-less Spurs team in a 2008 regular season game. Does anyone remember that? Ever since then, Duncan has viciously abused Martin with no regard for human life. The Nuggets will obviously be a bit deflated/demoralized without their star player, but I hope Timmy shows no mercy and just brutalizes K-Mart in the post, as usual.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:14 am
Uh, @tr, you can’t really put Hill on Lawson. The reason being the former is injured and will not play as far as we know.
Anyway, the Spurs should NOT be complacent at all. Put the damn Nuggets away as soon as possible. Shut every window for them.
Our guys should have a killer instinct by now that it is midway through the midway of the season.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:23 am
Is anyone else having trouble with the NBA’s website. Can’t watch videos, can’t display the boxscore, the scroller on the main page doesn’t work, etc…
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Thanks for the update DBAGuy. Keep in mind that best estimates of adjusted plus minus only have Carmelo being worth a couple points better than average. Although Billups, K-Mart and Andersen might be still hurt and rusty, their combined value could easily trump Anthony’s. In fact, until this year, Billups seemed to be more valuable than Anthony by himself.
Melo’s absence clearly helps the Spurs chances, but don’t write off the Nuggets just yet.
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:22 pm
To all Spur fans, if you had been told that a Spur guard had been named the Western Conference player of the week for last week, how many would have instantly thought, “that must be Tony Parker”! Be honest.
I’m happy for TP, but did I misintrepret all those game winning shots and plays that Manu made last week?
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:44 pm
Why do we have 2 POW? Paul Pierce also won it.
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:33 pm
@Kintaro funny quote. I wonder if he was saying the same thing after we beat his Nets team in the Finals, and Duncan was MVP?
@DBAGuy Eastern and Western Conference PoWs, maybe?
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:41 pm
does anyone realize how fortunate the spurs have been on this winning streak thus far? jennings got banged up during the game last week, billups was sidelined when the spurs were in denver, the suns game did not include the likes of carter, turkoglu, or pietrus, and rudy gay was suspended one game when memphis came to town.. and now of course tonight, no melo. strange occurrences as of late.
December 22nd, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Gary Neal is a friggen badass!
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:02 pm
Spurs beat the Nuggets tonight minus Carmelo however the bigger story was Tiago’s contribution. He played well and will get better with more playing time. There is a lot more to Gary Neal than just shooting !
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:13 pm
What a game. This is the second night in a row that Neal had 20+ points in Hill’s absence. Hill is a better defender, but Neal is a straight up shooter. If Neal didn’t do anything the rest of the season, then he would still be money well spent. At this point, Gary Neal is no fluke. That guy can just play. Did we have a Splitter sighting tonight? Wow.
As a sidenote, Manu, Tony, and RJ all played 36 minutes and we have to travel to Orlando for tomorrow night’s game. Maybe we can still get by with a win since the Magic are still working through the kinks involved with their blockbuster trade. Otherwise, it should be a super tough game.
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:18 pm
I agree Tiago and neal were both great tonight………….. THE ZONE saved us this game because we couldn’t keep Denver’s guards out of the lane all game. Spurs need to watch all the LONG JUMPERS and work the ball inside a little more to control the game……. We have great skill but Denver’s athleticism almost caught up to our skill………. Also I want to give a shot out to Bonner - he also played well………
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:44 pm
@shlos
+3
Curious isn’t it?
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:14 pm
shlos
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:41 pm
Crazy you should bring that up because I was thinking the same thing. Now we get Orlando and Washington who are in the middle of incorporating major new pieces. I’m not saying we will win these, but it has to help. Conspiracy theorists would have a great time with what you said.
December 23rd, 2010 at 3:07 am
No conspiracy, just the basketball Gods looking out for the Spurs
December 23rd, 2010 at 8:52 am
@duaneofly hahaha i feel ya there.. the basketball gods should be looking out for us, we have such a modest team of hardworking and ambitious players. No troublemakers, ever. (Maybe Stephen Jackson aside) I’ve been waiting for this team to coalesce for a few years and it seems to be finally happening!
@TheBeatCouncelor i’m not sure what +3 refers to? I’m relatively new to posting if that helps..
December 23rd, 2010 at 8:53 am
oh, and also, i was merely observing a phenomenon, i’m not one for conspiracies. although i do believe it should be factored in to our wins as to not make the team overly confident.
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