Thursday, February 17th, 2011...3:49 am

Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls

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San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls 7:00 CST February 17, 2011

The Spurs must be waiting to release their collective breaths. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” ends tonight with one of their toughest matchups. The Chicago Bulls have a record of 36-16 and are on the lower end of the race for second place. Derrick Rose is getting plenty of MVP love and the Bulls have played very well as of late, winning of 12 of their last 15. John Hollinger’s Power Rankings place the Bulls 4th and the Bulls have the best average margin of victory over their last 14 games.

The last time these two teams met was on November 17, when the Spurs emerged with a 103-94 victory. Derrick Rose scored 33 points on 27 field goal attempts, but the Spurs balanced attack prevailed. Parker scored 21 on 14 field goal attempts; Ginobili needed only 12 shots to score 20 and Duncan managed 16 points (although he did require 19 attempts) to go with 18 rebounds and 2 blocks. George Hill also contributed 14 points on 8 shots and Matt Bonner scored 8 on 5 attempts (with a laughable +/- of 29 in 22 minutes).

The Spurs found success defensively when they were able to get the ball out of Rose’s hands. Rose had only 1 easy assist (finished at the rim) to go with 3 passing turnovers and his teammates struggled to convert their shooting opportunities despite the constant attention Rose commanded. Teammates made only 24 of 65 attempts (37%), including 4 of 13 threes (31%). The Spurs, meanwhile, made 48.3% of their shots, got to the line 22 times and grabbed 5% more offensive rebounds than the Bulls.

The Bulls scored 20 points on 23 pick and rolls and only 9 points in the 14 times they passed out of that play. The Spurs held the fast break edge 26-16, but didn’t fare much better running the pick and roll. The ball handler scored 14 in 17 plays and the roll man had 8 points in 11 possessions.

The Bulls were without the services of Carlos Boozer the last time these two teams faced off. This time, they will be missing a different big man as Joakim Noah is unable to go. Both are exceptional players in different ways and I’m not sure that one player’s absence will hurt the team significantly more than the other.

The Spurs have a chance to close out the first half of the season (or 2/3rds or however you want to look at it), with a 7-2 record on the RRT and record 47-9 overall, but it won’t come easy. The Bulls figure to present a much steeper challenge than the likes of New Jersey, Washington, Philly, Toronto, Detroit and Sacramento; but a victory would be would be a exclamation point to what has been a sterling season to date as the NBA heads into the All Star break.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Chicago: 5.37 (5th)
San Antonio: 7.08 (1st)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 19, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective February 15, 2011):

PlayerFraction of teams minutesPER minus Counterpart PEROn court +/-per 100 possessionsOff court +/-per 100 possessions2 Year Adjusted +/-
Deng0.814.46.75.757.25
Rose0.778.66.885.280.71
Brewer0.483.67.895.19-1.55
Gibson0.450.14.687.99-0.35
Boozer0.448.47.465.75-0.64
Korver0.43-1.57.945.453.85
Bogans0.36-6.93.588.17-2.88
Noah0.341.14.187.77-3.39
Thomas0.32-0.94.867.28-2.28
Watson0.27-1.16.936.363.11
Asik0.24-4.211.764.84N/A



Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Rose, Bogans, Deng, Thomas, Boozer +56 in 342 minutes (+7.9 per 48)
Rose, Brewer, Deng, Gibson, Thomas +39 in 68 minutes (+27.5 per 48)

The Pick

Spurs, barely and with caveat

The Spurs have 2 days rest going into this one and Ginobili, Duncan and Parker have been able to catch extended rest in several of their recent games. Although the Bulls have played exceptional as of late and they have home court advantage, the Spurs rested starters could provide a significant advantage.

This prediction does come with a huge question, however. If Coach Pop decides to take it easy on the Manu and Duncan for one more night heading into the break, the Bulls should clearly be favored.

53 Comments

  • 27th in SRS?

  • [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by San Antonio Spurs, Andrew A. McNeill. Andrew A. McNeill said: 48MoH / Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls http://dlvr.it/GqP63 [...]

  • The last game of the RT is going to be the toughest but the good guys will play hard and give it all they got.
    I think Blair is going to have a great game.

    Go Spurs Go!!

  • I would like to see George start tonight, I would even prefer him in the starting lineup for the rest of the season. Manu has been struggling and I would love to see him provide the energy off the bench like the way he used to.

    DRIVE FOR FIVE
    Go Spurs Go!

  • Scott, isn’t it 47-9, since they already have 46 wins?

    “The Spurs have a chance to close out the first half of the season (or 2/3rds or however you want to look at it), with a 7-2 record on the RRT and record 46-9 overall.”

  • Good catches guys.
    I guess I’m feeling the effects of a nasty cold.

  • My fear is that the Bulls might want it more. Spurs would never lay down or quit, but that hunger in the belly might be strong in the Bulls players.

  • “I think Scott also took the break before the game started.”

    - Lakers coach Phil Jackson, commenting on Scott’s goofs before heading to the All-Star break.

    ;)

  • I’ll be there, first Spurs game since last time they were in Chicago, which was the Bulls season opener (2009-10 season).

    Spurs lost, but hope they play with some passion and get a big W to finish up the RRT!

  • Last night the Onion News Network reported that the Knicks abducted Tony Parker to force him to play PG for their team. . .

    http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/video/knicks-abduct-tony-parker-just-before-nba-kidnappi,19172/

  • Looking forward to seeing how the bench performs against this quality team at their arena.

    Exactly one month ago, the Mavs had just lost their six straight game. Since then, that team has won 13 of 15 (losing both times in a SEGABABA). The Spurs record over that span was 12 wins in 15 games.

    The only other game tonight is the Mavs @ Suns. Let’s end the RRT on a winning note and keep the playoff HCA cushion at 7 going into the allstar break.

  • I am fairly certain everyone on this board is excited at the way the Spurs have played not just on this RRT but throughout the season leading up to the AS Break!

    The team has been a force so far and while 70 wins is not a team goal, it sure looks attainable as far as I am concerned.

    I, for one, hope that they get to 70 so that the Spurs HAVE to be mentioned among the greats. The media, for the most part, is so damn hypocritical…..the Spurs burn through the 1st 56 games winning 46 of them and all they can focus on is what is wrong with the Lakers.

  • There will be at least one Spurs fan in the house tonight. GO SPURS GO!

  • [...] Network: 48 Minutes of Hell: “The last time these two teams met was on November 17, when the Spurs emerged with a 103-94 [...]

  • GO SPURS !!!!!!!!!!

    Beat the hornless bulls

  • Ya I think that we should win tonight. We have the better team and a ton of rest so all of our guys should have energy to burn. Especially with the break right behind us. I think POP should treat this like a playoff game and play the starters as long as needed. So a 35 minute game from TD/MANU is cool - they will have time to rest over the weekend(POP will prob only have them make Cameo’s in the ALL-STAR game).

  • @ TD=BE

    Agreed. Pop needs to let the big guns play and those big guns need to drop the hammer. Playing on 2 days rest followed by at least 5 more days of rest has to be the ultimate “let’s get this done, minute totals be damned” games.

    A 15 point win would be really nice heading into the All-Star weekend.

  • Spurs will lost today, the team is tired and is not good playing against good defensive teams( like happen on Orlando, Boston, Portland)

  • @Rafael: But they have good rest coming into this game. I think it’s fair to expect a solid thumping, win.

  • haven’t seen anyone mention this yet…bulls have the 2nd best home court record in the league right now. this could be a big momentum victory for us!

  • haven’t seen anyone mention this yet…bulls have the second best home court record in the league. this could be a big establishing victory for us!

  • @mikrobass3
    flip side to your comment is that the Spurs have the best road record in the NBA (21-7).

    Go Spurs Go!!

  • I wanted to share this article with everyone about tonights game… Very well written.. and it shows… not everyone out there in the media doesn’t know squat about basketball:

    http://blogs.bulls.com/2011/02/bulls-face-association-best-spurs-pre-all-star/?ls=iref:nbahpt1

  • Manu not start again?? No!!!!! We’re 46-9 because he is finally starting. He gives the team confidence from the get go, especially in the second half of games.

    We turned our season around last year when Manu became a starter.

    The two best teams in the Duncan-Manu-Parker era were in 2005 and 2006, the two years he started. (And this team is very likely the best of all).

  • @ITGuy: agreed. the spurs have the best everything record in the league right now!

    i’m simply pointing out that, after us, the bulls (not the heat, mavs, or celtics) are the toughest team to beat on their home floor. no one better to do that than the spurs!

  • An easy, big win?

    You guys are funny.
    The Spurs will be lucky to squeak out a close win, and that’s only if you have a great game and we have an off game.
    If this is a blowout, the Bulls will take it.

    You’re on a 9 game road swing. Even with a couple days rest, that’s draining.

    Last time, we were on a back to back and you guys had plenty of rest.
    This time we’ve had plenty of rest as well, and we’re playing at home.

    Should be a good game. (I like the Spurs, just not as much as the Bulls ;-)

  • We really have to check out some of these trades. Now I know the kings would never do this, but look at what Tiago Splitter can fetch from other teams in Production terms.

    Teams like Houston and Sacramento have a ton of young players and ALL they want is Picks/more young players with Potential.

    The Kings

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4hffx5w

    Now I know the KINGS would never do this - But we could have 1 of the 2 and maybe an expiring contract for Tiago. They are both 24 and younger and have been in the NBA 2 years. So we get younger/more athletic and lighter in the pocket books.

    Houston Rockets

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4uvfhym

    Again we get younger/more athletic and lighter in the pocket books. Plus in Hayes we get an NBA ready big. Nothing exciting but able to eat minutes right now at the PF/C position and has played very well vs many top players/teams. And even better if we don’t like him after this year, just let him walk this summer.

  • @Rafael, the only thing that lost was the English language.
    “Spurs will lost today, the team is tired and is not good playing against good defensive teams( like happen on Orlando, Boston, Portland)”

    Thanks for your contributions. Please try again.

  • @ mikrobass3

    “i’m simply pointing out that, after us, the bulls (not the heat, mavs, or celtics) are the toughest team to beat on their home floor. no one better to do that than the spurs!”

    You guys are making the mistake of putting way too much stock in regular season records. Defensive FG% is the thing SA should be worried about. And what we are doing to sure up our front court just in case LA decides to play ball in the post season.

    Also with LA/Mavs both talking to other teams about making a splash in the trade market, we have to stay ahead of the crowd.

  • Also check out these trades

    Detroit
    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4tle848

    Sacramento
    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4rf33hj

    We can’t get both, but either one would work wonders for us. Younger, more athletic, and we can save some money. We would have to throw in Luther Head to make the money match but he is an expiring so that’s cool.

    Houston
    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4e5vdz3

    Same as above - younger, more athletic, save some money. Plus we get a big that’s NBA ready right now to eat minutes now and provide some quality minutes in the playoffs. Hayes is Blair when he figures out how to use his low center of gravity on D.

    What do you think

  • @Flavor, thanks for the link man! That was a fantastic article. Gotta love when someone outside of SA can appreciate Pop.

  • The Mavs won’t make a move. Peja was their move.
    Dunno what LA can do. Anyone they have worth trading is necessary for what they do.

  • The Lakers might tweak but nothing major is happening. I’m sure they would love to dump Artest but he probably has run out of teams who would take his personality on. Plus, Jackson still believes in his team (falsely, I hope).

    And yes, I think the Mavs are standing pat as well. I agree completely, Peja was it. And I say, once again, you don’t mess with a team that is 46-9. You nurture it.

  • Titletown99030507
    February 17th, 2011 at 3:24 pm

    @Flavor, thanks for the link it was a good read. “Can the frenchman come in?” I think I like Pop again.

  • Titletown99030507
    February 17th, 2011 at 3:39 pm

    @jwalt, Good point on nurturing our 46-9 team. Can you imagine if we have a 7 game lead going into the last 6 games of the season. That would be a great time to play Tiago, Anderson, Quinn 35 min each game for 4 games then play the starters the last two games to get them ready for the playoffs.

  • Focus, focus, focus! That’s all it will take to end this RRT in style! Boozer has always given us fits and DRose is a manster, but I really think that our guys have something to prove. Lasso those Bulls, guys!

  • [...] [...]

  • @TD = BEST EVER
    February 17th, 2011 at 2:31 pm

    seriously?

    for someone who espoused the benefits of and need for height, you want to trade splitter (a legit 7 footer) for chuck hayes (who’s generously listed at 6’6″)? really? tiago’s even younger than chuck, and though i like budinger as a bench player, really dude? splitter’s got future starter written all over him.

    i’m sorry, but it’s never good to be trading away underpaid young pieces for mediocre returns, and it’s certainly not time to mess with the roster this late into the season. we’re in the final stages of the season and need to batten down the hatches. it’s all about getting ready for the playoffs now.

  • @ TD=Best EVER

    +10 -Cannot deny the obivious; trading a player the Spurs have essentially given up on to get 2 players we will use for defense/rebounding/additional scoring option(s). Anybody notice that in all of the tightlyt contested games we are using just 9 - NINE -players? We need more manpower to go far in the playoffs.

  • @DorieStreet
    February 17th, 2011 at 6:47 pm

    sorry, but that’s really a -10

    given up on splitter? how can you make that assumption? how many championship teams use more than 9 players in their playoff rotations? not a whole hell of a lot. in every interview i’ve seen on the subject, pop and splitter have talked a lot about how they’re working with him, coaching him up, and have big plans for him in the future. to say that they’ve given up on him has to be a gross falsity.

    would you take an untrained soldier with your unit into battle? no, you get people the right training and tools, make sure they can use it correctly, then get on with it. all indications point to that’s exactly what pop’s doing. the spurs rarely do things half-assed.

  • @ andy

    “the spurs rarely do things half-assed.”

    Well I would consider waiting 3 LONG YEARS for this guy a half-ass job of scouting. At the draft and right before they decided to bring him over. We should have let him stay over there and signed a veteran that can help us THIS YEAR….

    As far as the trade

    The trade is Splitter for Budinger….. everyone else is just a Bonus. Budinger is NBA ready NOW not next year… So is Hayes. And Budinger is what 22 or something. He will be a better player than Splitter over the course of his career and is far and away better now. Also it gives us a chance to trade RJ in the off season to save even more money.

  • @ andy

    Splitter was drafted in 2007. (I am not a proponent of this ‘euro draft & stash’ method of the FO; it has netted the franchise nothing so far this decade.)

    All of your hyperbole about an ‘untrained soldier’ is pure bunk. Numerous foreign players have come in the first year and adjusted way better than this guy. If he was going to be a project like this, he should have been with the Toros back in the fall and the roster spot used for someone who has a game that can contribute this season.

    The Spurs are 46-9 (looks like 46-10 now), not 30-25. Let’s not squander HCA in the playoffs for a 1st or 2nd round effort because we are waiting for a supposedly international stud to “get training & tools.”

  • @ andy

    Chuck Hayes would have helped SA tonight. Blair/Bonner both got abused. And your BOY Tiago is at home resting yet ANOTHER INJURY! What is that like 4 this year. Face it the dude can’t hack it at all. He will spend most of the next 2 years in the League with the (DTD) status next to his name.

  • @TD = Best EVER
    February 17th, 2011 at 7:15 pm

    “Budinger is NBA ready NOW not next year… So is Hayes. And Budinger is what 22 or something. He will be a better player than Splitter over the course of his career and is far and away better now.”

    excuse me? are we talking about the same underachiever? i know that some kids make better pros than collegiate players, but you’re going to say that he’s going to have a better career than a spanish league mvp? now you’re saying that he’s better than splitter, but we’ve seen, what, 5 games worth of his potential?

    @DorieStreet
    February 17th, 2011 at 7:29 pm

    hyperbole means something else; i think you meant analogy. numerous foreign players come into crap teams and get to run and play as they please, and even those don’t adjust “way better than this guy”. dirk, scola, and manu weren’t obvious all-stars in their first year over. splitter has to fit into the system we already have in place, and if that takes a year, so be it. our defense is mediocre enough without someone out of place.

    and lest you forget, critic of the draft and stash, ginobili was a draft and stash. tell other fans he’s nothing (he came over in 2002, unless you’re talking about the 2010′s, in which case, sure, draft and stash has only netted us splitter, de colo, and reynold’s potential). you’re not going to hit on every pick, and the spurs have done a mighty good job with the picks they had. not perfect, but much better than average.

    feeling a little combatitive tonight, maybe cause rose just had his way with us.

  • Thoughts on tonights game…

    1) I’m tired of Blairs stupid nonsense… the silly fouls and the turnovers are getting out of hand. He’s like the Manu version of a post player… one night he can be great and give you 22 and 10, the next night he’s fouling out with 7 turnovers and 6 points. Consistency man…… consistency.

    2) It’s obvious we took tonight off… The LA game last night pretty much solidified their stance on the season and the Spurs with a comfy 7 game lead decided that tonight would be a good night just to play a meh game and see what happens… my point is this… if you’re gonna tank a game, then tank it.. start Tiago, throw in Anderson by the 6 minute mark of the 2nd quarter and get these guys some playtime… don’t play this pretend crap like we’re gonna try but not win but extending the starters minutes longer than we have too because we can… it makes no sense.

    3) Chicago’s defense is overated… sorry, but I didn’t see anything tonight that a good team, playing like they wanted to win, couldn’t take advantage of… Spurs ball movement was lackadaisical at best and too many times we settled for one on ones when we had an easy out. It just seemed we wanted to run a disjointed half court offense against these guys when, if we tried to run on them. we could win… but that involves effort…

    4) SA is looking at the season as a whole, at this point, rather than one game at a time…. With the Lakers playing like garbage and us having this cushy lead, it’s easy to get complacent and pretend you’re awesome and then get owned by somebody. Look no further than LA… I don’t want this to happen to our Spurs but at the same time, they need to pick it up and play like this season is still important. It means absolutely jack if you’re gonna play great for 50 games and then take the next 32 off because you feel like you’re somebody and then get rocked by a hot team… ask Dallas about how that feels.

    This trip should’ve been, at least, a 7-2 trip but instead of keeping our foot on the gas we decided to slow down a bit. Don’t get me wrong, 6-3 is good… but we lost to Portland, Philly, and Chicago… all potential playoff teams… THAT.. I don’t like. C’mon guys.. it’s time to step up when we need it most… get to it.

  • TD = Best EVER
    February 17th, 2011 at 7:52 pm

    “Chuck Hayes would have helped SA tonight. Blair/Bonner both got abused. And your BOY Tiago is at home resting yet ANOTHER INJURY!”

    1st, splitter is not my “BOY”, and i have no relation or interest in him other than as relates to the future of the spurs. get that straight.

    2nd, you can’t definitively say hayes (as much as i think he’s a average to good player, and like his effort) would have made a difference tonight. lest you forget, we are a team in the fullest sense of the word. he would need to fit into our system. his athleticism is worse than blair’s and better than bonners, but his corporate knowledge is nil.

    3rd, injuries are part of the game. he’s played a year and a half straight and trying to stay healthy for an 82 game season is apparently not in him. not the worst sin in the world, but it sucks that we can’t use him now. doesn’t mean we throw him away for average players.

    that’s the last i’ll say on the issue.

    as for the game tonight. what a suckfest, but i’m not surprised or disappointed. we have a healthy lead, it’s a long roadtrip, and we probably won’t meet them in the finals (though it’s not out of the realm of possibility once noah gets back, when i think they’d be a scary team). we managed to hold boozer to a decent level (3 fouls by the half can help), and as much as rose killed us this game, i don’t think he can do that again on us. i still think he’s way overhyped.

  • @ andy

    Dirk’s 1st year wast the Spurs 1st championship run-so I don’t remember. Stats state he played in 47 games and started 24. Next year-and everyone thereafter 77-82 played, 77-82 started. Spurs traded Scola Oct 2007 to Rockets. He played in all 82 games his 1st year & started 39. Since his 2nd year, Scola has started and played in every game for Houston.

    Other than Ginobili & Parker, the FO has been missing on this method, or the coaching staff has been impatient with the ones who’ve made the roster. Scola-should have ponied up the money (especially after waiting FIVE seasons). Drafted Udrih-played him sparingly; drafted Barbosa & Dragic but traded them both on draft night.

    Mahinmi-drafted 2005, didn’t come over until 2007-08 season; 26 games played as a Spur for 3 seasons. Splitter-we know the story; now this Richards guy drafted this past summer-how many seasons will pass until he comes over and not play? It is time to give up on this way of aquiring players.

  • “and as much as rose killed us this game, i don’t think he can do that again on us.”

    Again? He’s already done it twice.

  • @ andy

    p.s. De colo? Reynolds? WHO?

  • @ Ryan

    The Mavs are the threat to the Spurs more than the Lakers right now. Since Jan. 16th, San Antonio has played 16 games and went 12-4 (including the Bulls game). The Mavs’ have played 15 games and compliled a 12-3 record. If they win this game @ the Suns tonight, they will be 6 games behind the Spurs. They have adjusted to the loss of Caron Butler, and just got back Roddy Beaubois.

  • @ Andy

    To call Hayes Overrated at 6-6 with no post moves or offensive game what so ever pretty much sums up your knowledge of basketball. Hayes has never been good but he is an older DJB that knows how to stay on the court(not as foul prone).

    Also to call Budinger average?? Do you even watch basketball. If you give Budginer starters minutes(30-35). He would put up 16+points 4.5+ rebounds a game easy. And that right NOW. Tiago will never average that many points because he has little NBA game.

    Also to the point of Tiago being the MVP of Spain I say Spain must have been a horrible place to play basketball because he isn’t ready for the NBA at all. And if you or anyone else thinks he is the future. Then we are destined to become the Clippers of the past 10 years(Lottery bound).

    WE need to cut bait before it hurts us any worse. This RRT has proven it 2 times we needed a 5th mobile big that could have helped on LA or D-ROSE tonight and Splitter was MIA. Blair is still up/down and Bonner if he isn’t making shots does NOTHING for you.

  • I said the Spurs would lose today…Spurs lost to a good team with D.Rose career-high(TP is so well in defense lmao)…26-0 after ASG, yes We Can!!Spurs always better after ASG…
    About Tiago, omg how can u blame him, the guy have no guilt of injuries or DNP-CD, when he played 20 minutes or more showed potential.

    @TD = Best EVER Spain is the best league outside NBA, only 2 players won Spanish League MVP and Spanish League Finals MVP, Splitter is one…P.Gasol, M.Gasol, L.Scola never did it…I am not saying he is better than them but he is good and we will not get any better.

  • Bulls wanted it more, and it showed.

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